Silver (XAG) Forecast: Will ADP Jobs Miss Push Silver Past $36.30 Resistance?

Silver Tests $36.30 Pivot for Seventh Session

Silver prices are pushing higher midweek but remain pinned below the pivotal $36.30 level for a seventh straight session, underscoring how this resistance continues to dictate near-term market direction.

Clearing this pivot could ignite a swift rally toward the minor top at $36.84, the final hurdle before the 13-year high at $37.32.

At 11:30 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $36.34, up $0.31 or +0.85%.

Fed Rate Cut Bets, ADP Data Awaited

Gold’s resilience above its 50-day moving average at $3321.60 offers indirect support for silver, as traders brace for the June ADP employment report.

Weak labor data would strengthen bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, likely weakening the dollar while underpinning metals.

Despite job openings ticking higher, recent declines in hiring signal a slowing labor market, which may align with gold’s cautiously bullish stance if ADP surprises to the downside.

Treasury Yields and Debt Concerns Provide Tailwinds

Passage of the tax and spending bill adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt has lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.251% and the 2-year yield near 3.779%, highlighting the tension between inflation concerns and the Fed’s reluctance to tighten aggressively.

While higher yields often pressure metals, the persistent deficit and Fed caution are creating an undercurrent of support for gold and, by extension, silver, as traders hedge against debt-fueled inflation risks.

Inflation Signals Stay Sticky

ISM manufacturing data confirmed contraction at 49.0, but price pressures persist with the prices paid index rising slightly to 69.7. These data points suggest inflation remains sticky, limiting the Fed’s flexibility while keeping real yields contained.

For metals traders, this backdrop continues to provide a supportive environment as it tempers aggressive dollar strength, aiding silver’s ability to hold higher support zones.

Silver Outlook: Breakout or Retest?

A clean breakout above $36.30 would open the door to $36.84, with a decisive push clearing the path to the psychological $37.32 zone. However, failure to clear $36.30 could see silver slip back to the support band between $35.40 and $34.87, with last week’s low at $35.28 providing an interim test.

Should the lower edge at $34.87 give way, watch the 50-day moving average at $34.30 as a potential buy zone, where fresh interest may re-enter.

For now, silver remains positioned for a potential breakout, with near-term direction likely to follow the ADP employment report’s signal and the Fed’s evolving stance on rate cuts. A weaker labor print could be the trigger silver bulls have been waiting for.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.