Solana Price Forecast: SOL’s Technical Pattern Hints at 25% Drop Next

Solana (SOL) is coming under renewed bearish pressure as a weakening head-and-shoulders setup on the three-day chart converges with deteriorating on-chain valuation signals.

SOL’s Head and Shoulders Setup Raises 25% Dip Risks

Solana is flashing a classic bearish reversal signal as price action carves out a head-and-shoulders pattern on the three-day chart, raising the risk of further downside in the coming sessions.

The structure features a left shoulder in late February, a higher head in mid-March near the $100–105 range, and a lower right shoulder forming in early April around $90.

This sequence reflects weakening bullish momentum, with each rally failing to reclaim prior highs, a typical hallmark of trend exhaustion.

At the same time, SOL is testing a key horizontal support zone near $78–80, which serves as the pattern’s neckline. A confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger a sharp sell-off, as traders interpret the move as a continuation of the broader downtrend.

Based on the pattern’s measured move, calculated by projecting the height between the head and neckline, SOL’s downside target comes in near the $56–60 range, down about 25% from current price levels.

A move back above $92 would invalidate the setup.

Solana On-Chain Data Doubles Down On Downside Risks

Solana is approaching a key on-chain support zone as its price trends lower within the MVRV Extreme Deviation Bands, a metric that helps identify when an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical average.

In simple terms, the MVRV model compares the current market price to the “realized price,” essentially the average price at which all coins last moved.

The colored bands show how far the price is from that average. When the price is near the upper bands (orange/red), it’s often overheated. Near the lower bands (green/blue), it tends to be undervalued.

Right now, SOL is drifting below the mean (yellow) and hovering around the -0.5σ (green) zone, a region that typically acts as a transition area during downtrends.

Historically, when SOL fails to hold this level, it often slides further toward the -1.0σ (blue) band, which marks deeper undervaluation.

That lower band currently sits near $66.6, making it a realistic downside target if selling pressure persists.

This outlook aligns with broader technical weakness, including a potential head-and-shoulders breakdown on higher timeframes.

In short, if SOL cannot reclaim its average valuation zone soon, the MVRV model suggests a continued move lower toward the $60–$65 range before a stronger accumulation phase begins.