S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Breaks Through the 200 Day EMA

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has broken above the 200 Day EMA during the trading session in the E-mini futures market, suggesting that we are going to make a serious threat to breaking out above the 4200 level. If we do, that opens up the possibility of a move to the 4300 level, something that looks very likely based upon the momentum. Having said that, you need to be cautious because there are a lot of crosscurrents going on at the moment. I think the 4300 level will be very difficult to break up above, so you will certainly have to think of volatility through the prism of the VIX.

If we do break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the impulsive candlestick that we have formed on Wednesday, that would be a very negative sign and could send this market back down. One thing is for sure, we are clearly at an area that’s a major inflection point on the charts. The initial reaction has been strong to the CPI number, so now the question is whether or not the market can continue its upward momentum and rally even further. I think at this point it looks more likely than not, so the next battle might be the 4300 level.

Expect extreme amounts of volatility, because even though the CPI number came in lower than anticipated, it is still about 3 ½ times where the Federal Reserve wants to see it. In other words, it’s probably only a matter of time before somebody out there on the Federal Reserve Board tries to talk this back down.

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 11.08.22

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