S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Continues to See Noise

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 22.08.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, breaking above the top of the hammer from the Friday session. At this point, it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to rally from here and go looking to the 50-Day EMA. If we can break above the 50-Day EMA, then the 4500 level is possible, which is followed by the 4600 level.

On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break down below the hammer, then the market breaks down to the 200-Day EMA, which is closer to the 4250 level. All things being equal, this is a market that is looking for its footing, but we also have to pay close attention to the fact that the Federal Reserve’s Chairman is speaking on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium, that will obviously have a major influence on what people expect the central bank to do going forward.

All things being equal, I think this is a market that continues to be very noisy, and I think this week could be more choppiness than anything else just waiting to happen. After all, a lot of traders will be out there trying to guess what Jerome Powell is going to say, and it seems as if there’s never a lack of narrative to make noise to deal with out there. With this being the case, I like the idea of potentially buying a dip, but I also recognize that you need to be very cautious with your position sizing as the noise will be almost deafening between now and then, and there certainly won’t be any real significant amount of conviction one way or the other.

If we were to turn around and break down below the bottom of the hammer from the session on Friday, that could open up quite a bit of selling, then I think the market starts to look to “reset”, perhaps trying to turn things back around and go higher from there. If we break down below there, then the bottom falls out and it’s likely that we see the market fall apart much more rapidly.

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