S&P500 Forecast: Traders Brace for Fed and Big Tech Earnings after GDP Surprise

S&P 500 Futures Flat as Traders Await Fed, Eye GDP and Earnings

U.S. equity futures hovered near the flatline Wednesday morning, with traders pausing after a stronger-than-expected GDP report and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

S&P 500 futures edged higher, Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2%, and Dow futures gained just 8 points. Despite robust economic growth in Q2, attention remains centered on interest rates and corporate earnings.

Will the Federal Reserve Hold Steady on Rates?

The market is pricing in a 98% probability that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5%, per CME FedWatch. While pressure from the White House mounts, analysts expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reiterate a cautious stance during the afternoon press conference. “Markets do not anticipate any change in monetary policy until at least September,” said Mutual of America’s Jerry Tempelman.

GDP Beats, But Traders Stay Focused on the Fed

The Commerce Department reported Q2 GDP growth of 3%, well ahead of the 2.3% forecast. Still, the strong print did little to alter rate expectations, with traders more focused on Powell’s tone.

The data reflects steady consumer spending and business investment, but it hasn’t shifted Fed policy bets. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk remains a headwind, with U.S.-China trade talks stalling and tariff uncertainties lingering.

Earnings: Mixed Results from Starbucks, Visa, and More

Starbucks rose 4% after beating revenue expectations with $9.5 billion in Q3 sales, backed by CEO Brian Niccol’s confidence in the company’s turnaround. Visa dropped 2% despite strong earnings, weighed down by a reiteration of cautious full-year guidance. Qorvo surged nearly 10% on a strong revenue forecast, while LendingClub jumped 23% after doubling EPS estimates.

Other notable movers included Novo Nordisk, down 4% after cutting guidance on U.S. obesity drug sales and announcing a new CEO. Mondelez slipped 1% as margin and growth missed forecasts. Teladoc climbed 2.3% after narrowing its quarterly loss, and Peloton rallied 7% following an upgrade from UBS.

Market Outlook: What Should Traders Watch Next?

With the Fed decision due this afternoon, traders will closely dissect Powell’s press conference for any policy clues.

Upcoming earnings from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Ford, and Robinhood will also shape sentiment.

Technically, the S&P 500 has pulled back from record highs, and any hawkish language from the Fed could test recent support levels.

Watch for renewed volatility as the market reacts to central bank policy, earnings momentum, and global trade tensions.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.