S&P500: Market Awaits Fed and Earnings as Amazon, PayPal Lead Pre-Market Moves

Stocks Hold Steady After Record Highs as Fed, Big Tech, and Trade Take Center Stage

S&P 500 futures held near flat early Tuesday after major U.S. indexes ripped to fresh all-time highs on Monday. Traders are pausing ahead of a heavy slate of market movers this week — Big Tech earnings, a Fed rate decision, and a potential U.S.-China trade breakthrough.

At 11:57 GMT, benchmark futures are trading 6913.00, up 4.75 or +0.007%.

Are Traders Catching Their Breath or Bracing for a Catalyst?

Monday’s rally wasn’t subtle. The S&P 500 closed above the 6,800 level for the first time ever, with the Nasdaq and Dow tagging new highs of their own. Even small caps joined the party, with the Russell 2000 notching a fresh record.

This morning, S&P and Nasdaq futures are treading water, while Dow futures edge up about 0.36%. After a move that sharp, a breather isn’t surprising — especially with so many events on deck.

The buying to start the week was fueled by easing U.S.-China tensions. A framework for a potential trade deal is reportedly in place ahead of Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting, with discussions covering rare earth exports, soybean purchases, and the future of TikTok. That’s given bulls another reason to stick with risk.

Can the Fed Deliver What Traders Want?

The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting today, and rate-cut expectations are firming. Traders are pricing in a second cut for the year and will be watching Powell closely on Wednesday for signs of another move in December. The twist? The Fed is operating under an economic data blackout due to the government shutdown — meaning Powell’s messaging might lean more cautious than usual.

The labor market is flashing some warning signs, which could give the Fed cover to act again. But without fresh data, traders might not get the clarity they’re looking for.

Earnings Season Heats Up — Will Big Tech Keep the Rally Alive?

Thirty Nasdaq 100 companies report this week, including heavyweights like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. That group alone makes up roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s weight — so their prints will matter. So far, earnings have been strong. And guidance has held up, which matters more at this stage of the cycle.

Some names are already moving: Amazon is up after announcing 14,000 job cuts — the largest in its history — even as more layoffs could follow. Wayfair is surging 12% after a surprise profit. PayPal is jumping 13% on news it’s embedding its wallet into ChatGPT. And UPS and UnitedHealth are also catching bids on upbeat results.

What’s the Market Watching Next?

Beyond the Fed and Big Tech, Tuesday brings the S&P Case-Shiller home price index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang also speaks in D.C., which could trigger headlines.

Bottom line: The market’s got momentum — but the next leg depends on whether earnings and the Fed can meet sky-high expectations. Traders aren’t chasing the highs just yet. But if Powell hints at a December cut and Big Tech delivers, the melt-up could have more room to run.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.