Well, markets are starting the week basically flat. The S&P’s up just a hair, Nasdaq’s tacked on a few points, and the Dow’s down maybe a tenth of a percent. That’s not exactly fireworks, but given where we’re sitting — right up against record highs — it’s not surprising we’re catching our breath. More likely than not, this is one of those “wait and see” mornings ahead of Tuesday’s CPI print.
The big story out of the gate is Nvidia and AMD both giving up a slice of revenue from certain China chip sales in exchange for export licenses. The market doesn’t love that. Nvidia’s off about half a percent, AMD’s down closer to two. Nothing catastrophic, but enough to take a little shine off tech after last week’s strong run. And quite frankly, after the Nasdaq’s been on a tear, you’d expect some sellers to step in on headlines like this.
C3.ai is the train wreck of the morning — down over 30% after a revenue miss and some blunt words from CEO Tom Siebel calling results “completely unacceptable.” On the other side, AMC’s up 8% on better-than-expected earnings, and Paramount Skydance is getting a lift on a UFC rights deal. Crypto plays are catching a bid — Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Robinhood all up 2–3% as Bitcoin flirts with its highs.
On the S&P 500 futures, the recent high at 6,468.50 is the ceiling the bulls need to clear, while the 6,354 area marks short-term support from last week’s lows. If sellers really push, 6,239.50 is the next notable floor, just above the 50-day moving average at 6,232.
On the Nasdaq 100, 23,845 is the top to beat, with near-term support down at 23,310. A deeper drop would put 22,775 and the 50-day at 22,755 in play.
Make no mistake — it’s CPI tomorrow, PPI Thursday, and then the countdown to Jackson Hole. Inflation comes in hot and you can kiss this slow grind higher goodbye, at least temporarily. Cooler numbers? Then the bulls get more ammo. That being said, we’re still in August, which can be choppy, and no matter how bad the news gets, buyers on dips have been keeping this market afloat.
Bottom line — today feels like positioning ahead of the data. We’re still close enough to highs that pullbacks might look like buying opportunities, but we’ll see how that plays out once the numbers hit.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.