The S&P 500 has pulled back completely as markets are starting to focus on the reality, and not the hope of a Federal Reserve that is going to be relatively loose.
The S&P 500 futures shot higher yesterday as the Federal Reserve released a 50 basis point hike. That being said, Jerome Powell said that a 75 basis points hike was “not on the table”, so therefore it is likely that we got a little bit of a relief rally more than anything else. At this point though, nothing has fundamentally changed, as we still have to worry about interest rate hikes and a slowdown in the economy.
All of that being said, there is a lot of support underneath and the 4100 level continues to be an area that you will have to pay close attention to. If we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer from last week, then it is likely that we go much lower. At this point, it opens up a move down to the 4000 level, possibly even after that. If we break down below the 4000 level, then it is likely that we go even further.
As things stand right now, it looks as if we are hanging around in a consolidation area, with the 4300 level offering a bit of a resistance barrier. The market dancing around in this range would make a lot of sense, as there is so much in the way of confusion. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be volatile, so you need to be very cautious with your position size. On the other hand, if we were to break above the 4300 level, that would show real strengthen the market and perhaps a potential follow-through to the 4500 level.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.