The Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales, Fed Speakers and AI Earnings Test Record Stock Rally

Market Overview

U.S. stocks closed higher last week as traders focused on improving economic data, strong earnings growth and hopes for a diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Record highs in the major indices reflected growing confidence that the economy continues to hold up despite elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 49,609.17, up 109.89 points or 0.22% on the week. The S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93, gaining 168.81 points or 2.33%. The Nasdaq Composite led the rally, ending at 26,247.08, up 1,132.63 points or 4.51%.

Technology and AI-related stocks continued to lead the market higher as earnings results topped expectations across multiple sectors. With 89% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 84% beat earnings estimates while blended earnings growth tracked near 28% for the first quarter. Semiconductor shares remained especially strong as investors continued to price in aggressive AI spending trends.

Economic data also helped support sentiment. Labor market conditions improved through March and April with stronger payroll growth and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate. Broader hiring activity across sectors added to expectations that the economy can withstand higher energy prices for now.

Bond markets remained cautious even as stocks rallied. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.36% as traders reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts following stronger inflation readings and resilient economic data.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, May 11

Before the Open:

Barrick Mining (B), est. EPS $0.81

Constellation Energy (CEG), est. EPS $2.54

Fox Corporation (FOXA), est. EPS $0.98

Monday.com (MNDY), est. EPS $0.93

Mosaic (MOS), est. EPS $0.24

Economic Releases:

14:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales, forecast 4.05M (prior 3.98M)

After the Close:

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), est. EPS -$0.24

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), est. EPS $0.03

MARA Holdings (MARA), est. EPS -$1.51

Plug Power (PLUG), est. EPS -$0.10

Simon Properties (SPG), est. EPS $3.01

Tuesday, May 12

Before the Open:

AstraZeneca (AZN), est. EPS $2.49

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), est. EPS -$0.08

eToro Group (ETOR), est. EPS $0.69

Tencent Music (TME), est. EPS $1.37

Zebra Tech (ZBRA), est. EPS $4.25

Economic Releases:

10:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index, forecast 96.0 (prior 95.8)

12:15 GMT – ADP Weekly Employment Change (prior 39.3K)

12:30 GMT – Core CPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)

12:30 GMT – CPI m/m, forecast 0.6% (prior 0.9%)

12:30 GMT – CPI y/y, forecast 3.7% (prior 3.3%)

17:01 GMT – 10-y Bond Auction (prior 4.28|2.4)

18:00 GMT – Federal Budget Balance, forecast 37.5B (prior -164.1B)

After the Close:

Franco-Nevada (FNV), est. EPS $2.12

JBS SA (JBS), est. EPS $0.20

Oklo Inc. (OKLO), est. EPS -$0.19

Resideo (REZI), est. EPS $0.60

B&G Foods (BGS), est. EPS $0.05

Wednesday, May 13

Before the Open:

Alibaba (BABA), est. EPS $6.14

Dynatrace (DT), est. EPS $0.39

Global-E Online (GLBE), est. EPS $0.17

Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), est. EPS $0.56

Wix.com (WIX), est. EPS $1.24

Economic Releases:

12:30 GMT – Core PPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.1%)

12:30 GMT – PPI m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.5%)

14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories (prior -2.3M)

17:01 GMT – 30-y Bond Auction (prior 4.88|2.4)

After the Close:

Cisco Systems (CSCO), est. EPS $1.04

Doximity (DOCS), est. EPS $0.28

Grocery Outlet (GO), est. EPS $0.02

Manulife Financial (MFC), est. EPS $0.80

Teekay Tankers (TNK), est. EPS $3.54

Thursday, May 14

Before the Open:

Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR), est. EPS -$0.46

Canadian Solar (CSIQ), est. EPS -$0.82

Klarna Group (KLAR), est. EPS -$0.19

Nova Measuring (NVMI), est. EPS $2.19

YETI Holdings (YETI), est. EPS $0.18

Economic Releases:

12:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.6% (prior 1.9%)

12:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.6% (prior 1.7%)

12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 206K (prior 200K)

12:30 GMT – Import Prices m/m, forecast 1.0% (prior 0.8%)

14:00 GMT – Business Inventories m/m, forecast 0.8% (prior 0.4%)

14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage (prior 63B)

After the Close:

Applied Materials (AMAT), est. EPS $2.68

Figma (FIG), est. EPS $0.06

Globant (GLOB), est. EPS $1.49

Rumble (RUM), est. EPS -$0.09

CAE (CAE), est. EPS $0.30

Friday, May 15

Before the Open:

RBC Bearings (RBC), est. EPS $3.33

Economic Releases:

12:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 7.3 (prior 11.0)

13:15 GMT – Capacity Utilization Rate, forecast 75.8% (prior 75.7%)

13:15 GMT – Industrial Production m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior -0.5%)

After the Close:

No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Monday

No Fed speakers scheduled.

Tuesday

07:15 GMT – John Williams (FOMC Member)

17:00 GMT – Austan Goolsbee (FOMC Member)

Wednesday

15:30 GMT – Susan Collins (FOMC Member)

17:15 GMT – Neel Kashkari (FOMC Member)

Thursday

14:15 GMT – Jeff Schmid (FOMC Member)

17:00 GMT – Beth Hammack (FOMC Member)

21:30 GMT – Michael Barr (FOMC Member)

21:45 GMT – John Williams (FOMC Member)

Friday

No Fed speakers scheduled.

Fed commentary could carry added weight this week following the hot inflation data and ongoing debate over the timing of future rate cuts. Traders will also monitor reactions to the expected Senate vote on Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 49,609.17 (+0.22%), support at 46,512.83 (52-week SMA), 45,057.28, 43,562.29, resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 26,247.08 (+4.51%), support at 22,219.43 (52-week SMA), 20,690.25, 14,784.03, resistance at 26,248.62.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 7,398.93 (+2.33%), support at 6,616.90 (52-week SMA), 6,316.91, 5,943.23, resistance at 7,401.50.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

Inflation data will dominate trading this week with Tuesday’s CPI report expected to show continued pressure from higher energy prices. Traders will also focus on Thursday’s retail sales report for signs that consumers are still absorbing elevated gasoline costs without major spending weakness.

Fed speakers throughout the week could influence Treasury yields and rate-cut expectations following stronger labor market data and sticky inflation readings. The Senate vote on Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair could also become a market driver if traders view the leadership transition as more hawkish.

Earnings remain heavily concentrated around technology, AI and semiconductor spending trends. Cisco Systems (CSCO) will be closely watched for updates on hyperscaler AI demand and data center spending. Applied Materials (AMAT), Nova Measuring (NVMI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and Alibaba (BABA) could also influence sentiment across AI, semiconductors and growth sectors. Energy traders will monitor Constellation Energy (CEG), Ovintiv (OVV) and Teekay Tankers (TNK) as oil prices remain sensitive to Middle East developments.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.