The Week Ahead: U.S. Markets Weigh Fed Signals, Big Bank Earnings, Shutdown Risk

Weekly Market Overview

U.S. equities rebounded in Sunday night trading after last week’s sharp sell-off. Dow futures rose 0.8%, S&P 500 futures gained 1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 1.2% after President Trump signaled that U.S.-China trade tensions “will all be fine.” The comments eased fears of renewed tariffs that erased roughly $2 trillion in market value last Friday.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.7% to 45,480, the S&P 500 lost 2.4% to 6,553, and the Nasdaq slipped 2.5% to 22,204. Year to date, the Dow is up 6.9%, the S&P 500 is higher by 11.4%, and the Nasdaq has gained 15%.

Markets enter the new week balancing optimism over a potential de-escalation in trade tensions with uncertainty from the ongoing federal government shutdown, now in its third week. Economic disruptions are beginning to build as agencies suspend data collection and millions of federal workers miss paychecks.

Earnings season kicks off with major U.S. banks. Investors will assess loan growth, deposit margins, and fee income in a lower-rate environment. Technology sentiment may stabilize if trade rhetoric softens and AI-driven demand remains intact.

Volatility could stay elevated as traders watch Fed commentary and delayed data ahead of the October 29 FOMC meeting.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Oct 13
Before the Open:
• Fastenal (FAST), est. $0.30
• No additional major reports
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Tuesday, Oct 14
Before the Open:
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), est. $4.87
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), est. $2.76
• Wells Fargo (WFC), est. $1.54
• Goldman Sachs (GS), est. $11.02
• Citigroup (C), est. $1.74
Economic Releases:
• 09:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Optimism, forecast 100.5 (prior 100.8)
After the Close:
• Hancock Whitney (HWC), est. $1.43
• United Airlines (UAL), est. $2.67
• SL Green Realty (SLG), est. $1.39
• Synovus (SNV), est. $1.35
• J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT), est. $1.46

Wednesday, Oct 15
Before the Open:
• Bank of America (BAC), est. $0.95
• Morgan Stanley (MS), est. $2.09
• ASML (ASML), est. $6.38
• Abbott Labs (ABT), est. $1.30
• PNC Financial (PNC), est. $4.04
Economic Releases:
• 11:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 0.2 (prior -8.7)
• 17:00 GMT – Fed Beige Book
After the Close:
• Prologis (PLD), est. $1.44
• Progressive (PGR), est. $5.02
• Synchrony Financial (SYF), est. $2.24
• First Industrial Realty (FR), est. $0.75
• Triumph Financial (TFIN), est. -$0.04

Thursday, Oct 16
Before the Open:
• TSMC (TSM), est. $2.61
• Charles Schwab (SCHW), est. $1.23
• Travelers (TRV), est. $6.15
• Bank of New York Mellon (BK), est. $1.77
• U.S. Bancorp (USB), est. $1.12
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast 9.1 (prior 23.2)
• Other key data (Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims) delayed by shutdown
After the Close:
• CSX (CSX), est. $0.43
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR), est. $0.54
• Bank OZK (OZK), est. $1.66
• Cohen & Steers (CNS), est. $0.78
• F.N.B. Corp (FNB), est. $0.38

Friday, Oct 17
Before the Open:
• American Express (AXP), est. $3.99
• Truist Financial (TFC), est. $0.99
• State Street (STT), est. $2.62
• Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), est. $0.86
• Regions Financial (RF), est. $0.60
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Industrial Production, prior +0.2%
• Housing Starts and Permits delayed by shutdown
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Tuesday, Oct 14
Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) – 15:20 GMT
Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair) – 11:45 GMT
Christopher Waller (Governor) – 14:25 GMT
Susan Collins (Boston Fed President) – 14:30 GMT

Wednesday, Oct 15
Stephen Miran (Governor) – 12:30 GMT
Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President) – 13:00 GMT
Beige Book – 17:00 GMT

Thursday, Oct 16
Michael Barr (Vice Chair for Supervision) – 13:00 GMT
Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair) – 14:00 GMT

Powell’s remarks Tuesday are expected to guide rate-cut expectations as the Fed operates with limited data during the shutdown.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 45,479.61 (-2.73%), support is the 52-week average at 43,379.30, followed by swing bottoms at 43,340.68 and 41,981.14, resistance at 47,049.64.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,204.43 (-2.53%), support at 20,905.99, 20,560.17, 19,594.38 then 19,334.98, resistance at 23,119.91.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,552.51 (-2.43%), support at 6,360.58, 6,343.86, 6,212.69 then 6,023.86, resistance at 6,764.58.

All major indices remain above their 52-week SMAs, sustaining a broad uptrend.

Weekly Outlook

A packed week of earnings and Fed commentary meets a third week of government shutdown. With key data delayed, markets will focus on Powell’s comments and early bank results for clarity on credit and rate conditions.

Earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman, and Bank of America will test sentiment toward the financial sector. Semiconductor and transport names reporting later in the week may offer a gauge of global demand resilience.

Seasonal volatility and policy uncertainty could keep trading ranges tight. How the Fed balances limited visibility with policy caution will shape near-term direction heading into the late-October meeting.