Traders Buy the Dip All Week Reinforcing Support for Gold Futures at $1800
Gold and U.S. Dollar in the last 4 weeks
On Monday, August 8 gold futures opened at $1790 and by the close of trading had broken and closed above its 50-day moving average and closed at $1805 per ounce. Throughout the remainder of the week, December gold futures closed above $1800 on a daily chart. That being said, on Tuesday, Thursday and today December gold briefly traded to an intraday low between $1798 and $1799 prompting traders to buy the dip and move gold back above the key important level of $1800 per ounce.
The chart above is a 480-minute candlestick chart of gold futures which shows that in six instances market participants witnessed gold briefly break below $1800 and on each occasion recovered and closed above that key psychological price point. Both the daily and intraday charts demonstrate traders’ resolve to buy gold futures on each occasion that they perceived gold had become oversold below $1800.
December gold closed the week near its weekly high of $1824.70 resulting in the fourth consecutive week of gains. Over the last four weeks, gold has traded from a low of $1680 which occurred during the week of July 18, and gained approximately $137 or 7.53% in just four weeks of trading.
As of 5;05 PM, EDT gold futures are fixed at $1818.90 resulting from a net gain of $11.70 or 0.65%. Spot gold also finished solidly higher on the week taking physical gold just above $1800 per ounce for the first time since the beginning of July. Today’s respectable gains occurred despite dollar strength. The dollar gained 0.54% in trading today taking the dollar index to 105.565.
The screen-print above of the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) was taken at 4:29 PM EDT and fixed spot gold at $1801.40 per ounce. This is the first-time spot gold has closed above $1800 per ounce since the week of June 27. Today spot gold closed up by $11.40. However, the real gain minus dollar strength was $21.20 because dollar strength took away $9.80.
What factor is actually driving gold prices higher?
There remains genuine concern that the Federal Reserve has interest raised rates over the last four consecutive FOMC meetings. Also, the most recent data revealed a decline in the Consumer Price Index from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July. In light of a hawkish Fed and a slight decline in inflation the fact that gold futures gained over 7% in four weeks clearly illustrates that market participants continue to be laser-focused on inflation rather than rising rates.
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Wishing you as always good trading,
Gary S. Wagner