Uncertainty Over the Fed and the SEC Case Sends XRP to Sub-$0.35

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, XRP slipped by 0.19%, with a late crypto market reversal leaving XRP in the red.
• While recent court rulings have yet to influence, things should get more interesting in the coming weeks, though the Fed will also be a key driver.
• The technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 100-day EMA.

On Sunday, XRP slipped by 0.19%. Following a 0.36% gain on Saturday, XRP ended the week up 4.52% to $0.3586.

Tracking the broader crypto market, XRP fell to an early low of $0.3561 before making a move.

Steering clear of the First Major Support Level at $0.3519, XRP rallied to a high of $0.3668.

Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level at $0.3647, XRP fell back to end the day at sub-$0.3590

Uncertainty over the SEC case and the Fed Pressures XRP

The lack of progress towards a conclusion in the SEC v Ripple case continues to peg XRP back from a breakout.

Last week, the courts granted the SEC permission to write a reply brief to object to the court ruling on the Hinman speech-related documents. The SEC didn’t get its way, with the courts denying a 30-page opening brief while granting the request to file a 10-page reply brief.

The SEC is trying to shield the William Hinman speech-related documents from a 2018 speech.

In 2018, the former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The reply brief and a court ruling could dictate the outcome. There was little reaction to the courts denying the SEC motion to protect the Hinman documents under the attorney-client privilege. Losing an objection to the ruling, however, should generate a different market reaction.

Before the latest filings, the SEC had made at least six filings in opposition to the Defendants’ August 10, 2021, motion to compel.

Away from the SEC case against Ripple, there are headwinds for investors to consider. These include US economic indicators and the Fed monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

US GDP numbers on Thursday could justify the market fears of a recession. However, Wednesday’s rate hike will be the key. 100-basis points would be market negative, while a 50-basis point hike should be crypto positive.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 3.54% to $0.3459.

A bearish morning saw XRP slide through the First Major Support level at $0.3542 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.3498 to a low of $0.3419.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through S1 and S2 and the $0.3605 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3649 and the Sunday high of $0.3668.

XRP would need support from the broader market to return to $0.36.

In the case of an extended crypto rebound, XRP could test resistance at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3712.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3819.

Failure to move through S1, S2, and the pivot would leave the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.3391 in play.

Barring an extended sell-off throughout the afternoon, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3350.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.3487. Today, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, with both indicators price negatives.

A move back through the 100-day EMA and S2 would support a break through the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.3501, to bring S1 into view.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support an XRP rebound to bring R1 into play.

However, failure to move through the 100-day EMA would leave S3 in play.