US Dollar Price Forecast: Ceasefire Holds, NFP Disappoints — Will GBP/USD and EUR/USD Break Higher?

Dollar Eases as Ceasefire Stability and Soft Jobs Data Weaken Safe-Haven Appeal

On May 11, 2026, the U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies amid the conditional U.S.-Iran ceasefire held firm into its second month, combined with the weak April labor report issued last Friday, suggesting the end of tight Fed policy.

The partial resumption of tanker ships traversing the Hormuz Strait continues to dampen geopolitical risks, lessening the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. The euro gained on risk appetite and on expectations of more stable supplies of energy in Europe. The pound climbed on its status as a risk-on currency and beneficiary of more stable markets.

Focus now turns to this week’s U.S. inflation data that may offer new hints about the Fed’s next moves. Though the truce in the Middle East and softer labor report have removed the most urgent catalysts for the dollar, the deal is not necessarily bulletproof against a setback.

DXY Consolidates $97.90 – White Descending Channel Caps Rally

The DXY sits at $97.99 on the 4h timeframe, trading under a white descending line that traces down from the top in April and is respecting a red MA (50 period) at $98.10 as a dynamic resistance. In the near term we have a green candle that appears to form a small bullish hammer but does not pass the $98.09 pivot, with long upper wick and price rejection. It holds a blue support line and a horizontal $97.61 area, forming small higher lows in a short-term base.

RSI is hovering at the level of 50, without divergence. From a Fibonacci perspective, the range from May is projected to $98.59 and $99.09 as next resistance. A pivot is visible at $98.00, a key level to monitor for sellers defending against any rise to the ceiling of the channel. Structure stays neutral under $98.59 with the price inside this multi-week downward channel.

Trade Idea: Buy at $97.98 targeting $98.59, stop loss $97.61.

GBP/USD Holds Rising Channel – $1.357 Support Defended

GBP/USD is at $1.3608 on the 4h chart. It stays above a white line ascending from the low beginning in early May and continues to reject from the Fibonacci area at $1.3577 using green candles. The support line in this case is a red MA at $1.358. Higher lows remain intact inside the channel. The price action shows bullish engulfing after a bounce up off of the center of the channel. RSI is hovering around 55, a sign of consistent positive momentum.

In the near term we have a resistance at $1.3655-1.3713. A pivot is visible at $1.36, where buyers are stepping in on dips. The trade structure is bullish above $1.3577 and remains inside this clean upward channel since April.

Trade Idea: Buy at $1.3608 targeting $1.3655, stop loss $1.3575.

EUR/USD Grinds Above $1.177 – Blue Ascending Trendline Support

EUR/USD is at $1.1770 on the 4h chart, moving along a blue line ascending since the bottom in mid-April. It defends a $1.174 Fibonacci confluence area and a rejection of green candles is visible. A red MA at the level of $1.176 is acting as support. The price continues to form higher lows after holding $1.169 swing. The most recent candle forms a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting that the buyers remain in control.

RSI sits comfortably above 52, indicating modest positive momentum. $1.179-1.183 are the next overhead levels of resistance, as those were the top of the swings previously. The level at $1.176 is a high volume pivot. The structure of the trade is neutral-to-bullish above $1.174, in which the price is trading along the clean rising channel floor.

Trade Idea: Buy at $1.1770 targeting $1.183, stop loss $1.174.