USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Platinum and S&P 500: All Look Ready to Make Bigger Moves

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The first chart I’m bringing up is the US dollar against the Japanese yen and what I’m watching here is to see whether or not we actually have any sustainability in this move. Typically speaking, if you see something like this, there has been a massive fundamental change, but that change this time was actually central banks, at least it’s speculated, getting involved.

I mentioned yesterday in some of my analysis I was looking for some type of bounce in the US dollar, perhaps here or other places, and we didn’t really get that, although it does look like here things are slowing down a bit. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the 152 level. I think that’s an area that has to be watched very closely. It’s where the 200-day EMA is and it has been important a couple of times in the past.

If I can be patient enough, because if we do end up bouncing, then I’m willing to get involved and start collecting that swap again. I had been long of this pair going all the way back to something like late July, early August, collected swap for the run higher and now, full disclosure, I’m completely out. But I don’t have any issues getting involved again if we bounce a bit and then I’ll just follow the momentum because you do get paid at the end of every day. I don’t think the Japanese yen is suddenly going to strengthen and wipe everything out despite the fact that Japanese yields are rising. I think that’s a real problem for Japan, so it’s probably only a matter of time before we bounce.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The US dollar of course is on its back foot against the Australian dollar, and this is definitely one that I’m watching because we are right at a massive swing high from October of 2024. If we can break that level of 0.6950 or so, 0.7050 and then 0.7150 come into play. Short-term pullbacks could be buying opportunities with the 0.6850, at least in my estimation on shorter-term charts, showing potential for support.

Platinum Technical Analysis

Another market that caught my attention this morning is platinum. We pulled right back to this 2600 level, the scene of a breakout of an ascending triangle. Any bounce here to me gets interesting and probably offers $200 to $300 worth of gains here. I do like platinum a lot; the silver market of course is dragging it higher as well, but I think you’ve got a situation where silver’s just so overdone at this point.

I think some traders are using this as a backdoor play for that market. Platinum is typically much more of a grind, so be aware of that, but it does take some of that nasty volatility out of the situation with silver. I do think eventually we try to go higher; the question is, can we stay above $2500? Because if we break down below there, then I consider that former resistance area violated, then we have to step back and reset.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Finally, I’m looking at the S&P 500. Simply put, if we break 7000, I believe that we begin the next leg higher up to the 7200 level. Short-term pullbacks are fine and when you look at the S&P 500 from a short-term perspective, you can see that every time we dip, there are buyers. So that tells me that we are eventually breaking to the upside. Keep in mind we are in the midst of earnings season, so that will cause some volatility as well, but I think it’s only a matter of time before 7000 gets conquered. I’d love to see a 100 or maybe even 150 point drop here so that I can start buying again at a lower level.

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