USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Choppy

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session early on Tuesday, reaching towards the ¥105 level. The ¥105 level course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and the top of a short-term range between there and the ¥105 level. The 50 day EMA is above also offers a bit of resistance, near the ¥105.50 level. Looking at this chart, it is likely that we continue to see sellers come in on signs of exhaustion. That being said, the market is probably eventually going to break down below the ¥104 level, which could kick off a move much lower.

USD/JPY Video 04.11.20

If we break down below that level, then I think we go looking towards the ¥102 level, where we had bounced from previously. Looking at this chart, you can also make a bit of an argument for a descending triangle, which of course moves down towards the ¥102 level. I have no scenario in which a willing to buy this market, and I also recognize that the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA both make a range of resistance at the market has not been able to get above. If we were to break above the 200 day EMA, the market is likely to go much higher. Regardless, I am looking for signs of exhaustion to short this market, and if there is some type of election concerned, that could very well drive money into the Japanese yen for a safety play.

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