USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar fails to hang onto gains

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but continues to find a lot of resistance just above near the ¥110 level. The market has a lot of selling pressure there from the previous move lower, and of course we have the 50 day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. That being the case, it’s very likely that we will continue to see selling pressure going forward, and I do think that we will go looking towards the ¥108 level. That’s an area that has been supportive more than once, and therefore it makes sense that we will have another fight there again. However, overall I think there is plenty of reasons to think that the Japanese yen will strengthen due to a global “risk off” situation.

USD/JPY Video 25.01.19

If we did break above the 50 day EMA, then we need to deal with the 200 day EMA above there. Ultimately, I think that the technical damage that was done a few weeks ago will continue to be a major issue with this pair, and I think that we will continue to find sellers to jump in and fade this market every time it tries to rally. If we break down below the ¥100 level, then the market goes down to the ¥170 level next, followed very quickly by the ¥105 level from what I’ve seen. Ultimately, I don’t have any interest in buying this market until something fundamentally changes with the global economy.