Christopher Lewis
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USD/JPY daily chart, November 19, 2019

The US dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but gave back quite a bit of the gains. By doing so, we have broken back below the 200 day EMA during the middle the day, showing just how all over the place this market is going to be. The US/China trade talks continue to be a major problem, as the Chinese initially suggested that the phone conversation of the weekend was “constructive”, only to see the Chinese later state that there was “pessimism” as to whether or not a phase 1 deal will be made.

USD/JPY Video 19.11.19

In other words, it’s more manipulation of the media by the major players in this situation, and therefore the market doesn’t really know what to do at this point. I think we have shown that the ¥110 level is a major resistance barrier that needs to be overcome in order for the market to go much higher. Algorithms are clearly trading the market, because they react immediately to headlines and therefore, we need some type of concrete situation for this market to feel comfortable enough to break above the ¥110 level. Once we get that though, this market should take off towards the ¥112.50 level. In the meantime, expect a lot of back and forth and choppy trading. The ¥108 level underneath is supportive, just as the 50 day EMA is. Ultimately though, this is a market that is based upon risk appetite, which of course is going to be all over the place these days.

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