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USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar slips a bit on Thursday

By:
Christopher Lewis
Updated: Nov 29, 2018, 16:45 UTC

The US dollar fell a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching down towards the ¥113 level before finding a little bit of support. At this point, I think that the market will probably continue to find buyers underneath, but we may need to fall a bit to reach that support.

USD/JPY daily chart, November 30, 2018

The US dollar has slipped a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards ¥113 level. The US dollar got beat up a bit during both Wednesday and Thursday due to the speech by Jerome Powell which I think was the kickoff to an overreaction. There is a major support underneath though, especially at the uptrend line and the ¥112 level. Beyond that, the 200 day EMA sits just below there. I think that buyers will eventually show up, so as we pull back I start to look at this pair for value.

USD/JPY Video 30.11.18

However, if we were to break down below the 200 day exponential moving average, then I think that could unwind this pair rather drastically, with the initial level being ¥110 below, and then the ¥108 level after that. Remember that this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite so pay attention to that as well. I think that the ¥114.50 level above is the beginning of significant resistance that extends to the ¥115 level. Because of that, I think that it is going to take quite a bit of momentum building to finally break out to the upside. If we did do that, that could send this market towards the ¥118 level, perhaps even ¥120 after that. That would obviously be a major change in momentum. The ¥114.50 level has caused a lot of resistance several times in the past, so this is a major area we are tinkering around with.

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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