USD/JPY Price Forecast – USD Continues to Shy Away From 50 Day EMA

The US dollar has initially tried to rally again during the trading session on Tuesday but continues to find the 50 day EMA as being a bit too much to overcome. The fact that we have fallen here again suggests that there should be more US dollar weakness, but you should also keep in mind that the market is going to continue to go back and forth based upon a lot of volatility in choppiness because not only is this pair trying to price in US stimulus, but it is also trying to price and risk appetite. In other words, it is a bit of a “push pull” type of scenario.

USD/JPY Video 27.01.21

Looking at this chart, if we break above the ¥104.50 level, it could open up a move towards the ¥105 level. That being said, it is not until we break above the ¥105 level solidly that I would be interested in buying this market. That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of choppiness at this point but so far it looks as if we are going to continue the overall grind lower. I think that is probably a good word here: “grind.”

To the downside, the ¥102.75 level has been supportive in the past, and could make a nice target if we get a little bit of a breakdown. That being said, I do believe that it may be noisy on the way to that area, so you are going to need to be very patient and hang on to the position, thinking of it more of a longer-term position even though it is not that far away.

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