Weekly Waves 17 October: EUR/USD, Bitcoin and Gas

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the Natural Gas 4 hour chart, and the Bitcoin daily chart.

EUR/USD Bullish Bounce at the 78.6% Fib Support

The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level:

1. The EUR/USD seems to have completed an ABC (yellow) within a wave B (pink).
2. There was a strong bullish bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci support which confirms the end of the wave B (pink) and the start of the wave C (pink).
3. Price action needs to now break above the resistance (orange) lines to confirm the continuation within the wave C (pink).
4. The ABC (pink) is expected to complete a wave 4 (gray).
5. A break below the 78.6% Fibonacci level indicates either a downtrend or complex correction within the wave B (pink).

Bitcoin Builds Descending Wedge Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is building a descending wedge chart pattern, which usually breaks bearishly:

1. The BTC/USD has been testing the support zone (green) multiple times.
2. So far, BTC/USD was unable to break below the support levels.
3. But price action was hardly able to move up because it faced strong resistance with every bullish attempt.
4. The flat bottom but descending resistance line indicates a descending wedge pattern.
5. A bullish breakout (blue arrow) could indicate an ABC (yellow) within the wave 4’ (pink).
6. A bearish breakout (red arrows) indicates an immediate downtrend within the wave 3 (orange) of wave 5 (pink).
7. The bearish targets are at $15k, and $12.5k.

Natural Gas Bearish Bounce at 50% Fib Resistance

Natural gas made a bearish bounce at the 50% Fibonacci level, which is probably a wave 4 (yellow):

1. The bearish bounce could indicate a 5 wave (yellow) pattern within a wave C or wave 3 (pink).
2. A bearish breakout (red arrows) could occur below the last remaining support line (green).
3. The main targets are $6, $5.50, $5.30 and $5.
4. A break below the $5 increases the chance that price action is in a bearish wave 3 (pink) rather than a wave C (pink).
5. A bullish breakout (blue arrow) above the resistance (orange) could indicate an expanded wave 4.
6. A break above the 50% Fib places the bearish Elliott Wave analysis on hold.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter