Weekly Waves 19 Apr: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and USD/JPY

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD monthly chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart, and USD/JPY on the monthly chart.

EUR/USD Bearish Breakout Below Monthly Support

The EUR/USD monthly chart seems to be breaking below the critical support trend line (dotted green). What will this breakout indicate for the EUR/USD? Let’s review:

1. The EUR/USD bearish breakout below the support line (dotted green) could confirm a strong bearish price swing.
2. Although the previous bottom could stop price action from an immediate decline, our Elliott Wave analysis does favor a bearish continuation towards the -27.2% Fibonacci target.
3. The bearish decline could unfold in a bearish trend channel.
4. A bullish push above the broken trend line could place the bearish analysis on hold.
5. For the moment, a bullish ABC (blue) pattern within wave B (pink) seems completed and price is moving lower within wave C (pink).

BTC/USD Bullish Pinbar at Support Line

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has made a bullish bounce at the support trend line (green). Let’s analyze what that could mean for the BTC/USD:

1. BTC/USD showed a bullish pinbar candlestick pattern yesterday. The bullish candle occurred at the key support trend line (green).
2. The bullish bounce is probably indicating a bullish reversal.
3. The Elliott Wave patterns suggest a WXY (blue) complex correction within a potential wave B (pink).
4. A bullish ABC could unfold within the wave Y (blue) towards the main target zone around 50-60k.
5. A break below the support trend line could place the bullish analysis on hold.

USD/JPY Wide Open Space Above after Strong Impulse

The USD/JPY is showing extremely strong bullish momentum:

1. The USD/JPY bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange) has confirmed the bullish ABCDE (blue) triangle pattern within wave B (pink).
2. The larger picture seems to indicate an ABC (pink) Elliott Wave pattern.
3. The last 2 months, price action has accelerated which is indicating a wave 3 (blue) pattern within the wave C (pink).
4. Due to the strong surge, a small retracement or pullback towards the previous top or last month’s close would be useful for potential entry positions.
5. In general though, there seems to be plenty of space until the main Fibonacci -27.2% Fibonacci target has been hit.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter