XRP and a Return to $0.41 Hinged on US Stats and SEC v Ripple Updates

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP reversed Wednesday’s 2.43% gain with a 2.75% loss, marking the third loss from eleven sessions.
• Profit-taking and US economic indicators weighed as investors awaited the redacted versions of Wednesday’s Court filings.
• The technical indicators turned bearish, with XRP below the 50-day EMA, signaling a possible return to $0.35.

On Thursday, XRP fell by 2.75%. Reversing a 2.43% gain from Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.39663. Notably, XRP ended the day at sub-$0.40 for the fifth time in six sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.40916. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4153, XRP slid to a late afternoon low of $0.39446. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3967. Finding late support, XRP briefly broke back through S1 before ending the day at $0.39663.

US Economic Indicators and SEC v Ripple Jitters Tested Buyer Appetite

There were no further updates from the SEC v Ripple case to influence, leaving XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Through the morning session, profit-taking sent XRP into the red, with US economic indicators also weighing. XRP continues to show more sensitivity to market forces as investors monitor updates from the SEC v Ripple case.

While there were no updates to consider, investors await the redacted versions of Wednesday’s Summary Judgment Reply briefs. While redacted versions are due to be available on December 5, they could surface at any time, with the focus being on the Hinman speech-related documents.

Including the Hinman docs in the filings could force the SEC into a settlement. By way of history, the SEC failed to shield the Hinman speech-related documents on more than six occasions. The sheer number of failed attempts reflects the SEC’s desire to prevent the documents from becoming public.

In a famous 2018 speech, Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

While investors await the redacted versions, we can expect investor jitters and the broader market to influence.

Today, the US Jobs Report will influence the NASDAQ Composite Index and the crypto market. Investors are looking for numbers that would support a December Fed pivot but not fuel fears of a US economic recession. However, how much influence the US stats will have will depend on updates from the SEC v Ripple case.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 2.13% to $0.38819. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.39732 before falling to a low of $0.38500.

XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3910. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3854 limited the downside.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through S1 and the $0.4001 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4057 and the Thursday high of $0.40916. A return to $0.40 would signal a bullish session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4148 and $0.42. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4295.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3854 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3800 and the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.3707.

XRP movement will likely hinge on updates from the SEC v Ripple case and today’s US economic indicators.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.39369. The 50-day EMA narrowed on the 100-day EMA, with the 200-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A breakout from the 100-day ($0.39316) and 50-day ($0.39369) EMAs would support a run at the 200-day EMA ($0.40386) and R1 ($0.4057). However, failure to move through the 100-day and the 50-day EMAs would leave XRP under pressure.