XRP Bulls Need a Return to $0.4050 or Face Sub-$0.39

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, XRP fell by 3.01% to end the day at $0.39857.
• There were no updates from the SEC v Ripple case to provide direction, leaving the broader crypto market to send XRP to sub-$0.40.
• The technical indicators are turning bearish, with XRP sitting below the 100-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.38.

On Sunday, XRP slid by 3.01%. Following a 0.28% loss from Saturday, XRP ended the week down 3.61% to $0.39857. XRP wrapped up the day at sub-$0.40 for the first time in six sessions.

Range-bound through the morning, XRP rose to a late morning high of $0.41187 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4183, XRP slid to a late afternoon low of $0.39443. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4057 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4006 to end the day at $0.39857.

SEC v Ripple Silence and Shift in Fed Policy Sentiment Weighed

It was another quiet session on Sunday, with no updates from the SEC v Ripple case to influence. The lack of updates left XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.

The US Jobs Report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers from Friday continued resonating on Sunday. The fall in the unemployment rate to 3.4% and rebound in service sector activity drove expectations of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in March.

With the US CPI report out on February 14, there is also the threat of a 50-basis point interest rate hike, which would be bearish for riskier assets.

Today, there are no economic indicators to provide direction today. The lack of stats will leave the NASDAQ Index to influence the afternoon session. However, SEC v Ripple news, related chatter, and the crypto news wires will also need monitoring. Barring a Court ruling in the SEC v Ripple case, regulatory commentary and FTX, Genesis, and Silvergate updates will draw interest.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.09% to $0.39894. A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.39822 before rising to a high of $0.40309.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4016 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4088. A return to $0.4050 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and SEC v Ripple chatter would need to support a breakout.

In the case of an SEC v Ripple-fueled extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4191 and resistance at $0.4250. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4365.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3914 in play. However, barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3850 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3842. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3667.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.39399. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a slide through the 200-day EMA ($0.39399) to bring S1 ($0.3914) and sub-$0.39 into play. However, a move through the 100-day and 50-day EMAs would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4088) to target R2 ($0.4191) and $0.4250.

A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.