XRP News Today: Token Slides as ETF Catalysts Remain on Hold; BTC Eyes $110k

XRP in Limbo, But Catalysts Lurk

XRP extends its losses as investors lose patience with delays to spot XRP ETF approvals.

Analysts and traders continue to expect the launch of spot XRP ETFs as the key price catalyst, potentially driving XRP to fresh highs. However, the SEC has hit the pause button on crypto-spot ETF launches since green-lighting the Rex-Osprey Solana (SOL) ETF, which began trading on July 2.

In August, a wave of S-1 amendment filings with the SEC fueled speculation about the imminent approval of pending spot ETF applications. 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree filed amendments suggesting ongoing dialogue with the SEC.

However, the SEC has since remained silent on the spot XRP ETF applications, weighing on sentiment. On Monday, September 1, XRP dropped below the crucial $2.7 level for the first time since July 12, marking a 26% slump from its July 18 record high of $3.6606 (Binance). The SEC approved the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF but issued a stay order, delaying its launch, kickstarting the reversal.

Significantly, the token has fallen in nine of the last ten trading sessions. Investors have continued to take profit since the US Court of Appeals approved the Joint Stipulation of Dismissal in the SEC vs. Ripple case on August 22.

Why Is the SEC Delaying the Review of Crypto Spot ETFs?

On July 1, the SEC approved the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC) but issued a stay order, preventing its launch. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart attributed the delay to the SEC’s plans to introduce a standardized crypto ETF framework. The framework aims to establish consistency and investor protection.

Since the stay orders, Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE have filed 19b-4s. All three exchanges requested rule changes to enable Commodity-Based Trust Shares to list and trade under a standardized framework.

Given that the SEC is working in coordination with the exchanges on a framework, the filing suggested that a roll out was imminent. However, the agency has yet to introduce a framework, further delaying the launch of BITW and GDLC. Both would hold XRP.

What Does the Delay Mean for Traders?

The ongoing delay to XRP-linked ETF launches puts institutional demand on ice, leaving the token in limbo. In contrast, SOL has benefitted from institutional demand. SOL climbed to a six-month high of $218.01 on August 29, underscoring the importance of a spot ETF market.

A lack of price catalysts could leave XRP under pressure. However, the crypto community expects the SEC to approve the pending spot XRP ETFs by their October deadlines. Approvals could kickstart a rebound.

Nate Geraci, President at NovaDius Wealth Management, commented:

“You heard it here first… People are severely underestimating investor demand for spot XRP & SOL ETFs. Just like they did w/ spot BTC & ETH ETFs.”

He added:

“You see… I’ve been here before. And I have the receipts.”

Geraci shared two receipts. Notably, in a post from July 2023, he stated:

“Will go on record… Think spot bitcoin ETF launch shatters previous record ETF launch. It won’t even be close.”

XRP Price Outlook: Scenarios for Bulls and Bears

Can XRP lure dip buyers ahead of a spot XRP ETF approval? XRP declined 0.59% on Monday, September 1, following Sunday’s 1.52% loss, closing at $2.7598. The token underperformed the broader market, which fell 0.02% to a total crypto market cap of $3.71 trillion.

In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:

• XRP-spot ETF headlines.
• XRP Treasury Reserve Asset adoption.
• Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application.
• SWIFT-related updates.
• Market Structure Bill headlines.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Legislative roadblocks, weak Treasury Reserve Asset demand from blue-chip firms, OCC declines Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, lawmakers protect SWIFT, or the SEC disapproves XRP-spot ETFs. These factors may push XRP toward $2.5.
• Bullish Scenario: XRP-spot ETF approvals, OCC approves US-chartered bank license, rising XRP Treasury Reserve Asset demand from blue-chips, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or SWIFT loses share of global remittance business to Ripple. These factors could send XRP above its record high of $3.6606 (Binance).

October remains pivotal, likely dictating whether XRP breaks out or tumbles. Meanwhile, crypto legislation, global macroeconomic developments, and Bitcoin price action will continue to influence investor sentiment.

Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.

Bitcoin Steadies as Demand Outstrips Supply

While XRP extended its losses as investors locked in profits, increased institutional demand drove Bitcoin (BTC) higher. HODL15 Capital shared a monthly breakdown of Bitcoin supply (newly mined BTC) and Bitcoin demand.

Since January 2024:

• Global ETFs have acquired 682,431 BTC
• Strategy (MSTR) purchased 443,307 BTC.
• Public companies (excluding MSTR) bought 223,229 BTC.
• A total haul of 1,348,967 BTC outstripped a Bitcoin mined supply of 328,490 BTC.

Crucially, public companies (excluding MSTR) reported their most BTC purchases in July and August, sending BTC to a record high of $123,731 (Binance). However, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net outflows of 522 BTC, pushing the token to a 10-week low of $107,306 on September 1.

This week, US labor market data may influence demand for BTC. Softer data could fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed rate path could boost investor appetite for risk assets. On the other hand, upbeat numbers may sink the chances of multiple Fed rate cuts, weighing on sentiment.

BTC Price Outlook: US Jobs Data, the Fed, and Spot ETFs in Focus

BTC gained 0.92% on Monday, September 1, reversing Sunday’s 0.57% loss to close at $109,265. Despite the recovery, BTC remained below the crucial $115,000 level for a ninth consecutive session.

Looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price outlook. These include:

• Fed speakers: hawkish or dovish.
• US labor market data: Soft or strong?
• Legislative developments on Capitol Hill: The CLARITY Act – yes or no.
• BTC-spot ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Legislative roadblocks, a resilient US labor market, hawkish Fed signals, or ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC toward the psychological $100,000 support level.
• Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, weaker US labor market, dovish Fed rhetoric, and ETF inflows. In this case, BTC could target the record high of $123,731.

Key Market Drivers: Data, Regulation, and ETF Flows

Traders should track the following key events to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:

• XRP-spot ETF developments.
• Legislative developments: The CLARITY Act.
• US economic data: Supports rate cuts or tempers expectations of a Fed pivot.
• ETF market flows: Flow trends crucial for BTC’s supply-demand balance.

See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head in the coming months as regulatory and economic risks evolve.