XRP Price Rut Leaves $0.40 Out of Reach Ahead of the Hinman Ruling

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, XRP logged a second consecutive daily gain despite a choppy session.
• Updates from the SEC v Ripple case delivered early XRP volatility before external market forces weighed.
• The technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting at the 100-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.39.

On Wednesday, XRP rose by 0.55%. Following a 0.55% gain from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.3793.

A choppy start to the day saw XRP surge to an early high of $0.3922. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3814 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3856 before hitting reverse.

The reversal saw XRP slide to a low of $0.3678. XRP briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3701 before wrapping up the day at $0.3793.

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case provided direction going into the Thursday session. However, investor sentiment towards the global economic outlook and Fed monetary policy limited the upside.

Uncertainty Tested Investor Appetite and Will Continue to Do So

Despite the momentum in the SEC v Ripple case seemingly tilted in favor of the Defendants, uncertainty continues to shroud XRP.

On Wednesday, news of the SEC filing a reply brief to further justify its objection to the July court ruling, denying the SEC motion to shield the Hinman docs under attorney-client privilege, delivered an early breakout.

However, the upside was short-lived, with uncertainty about the outcome of the case and, significantly, the Court ruling on the SEC objection, XRP price negative.

While XRP investors remain focused on the SEC v Ripple case, macroeconomics and sentiment toward Fed monetary policy also influenced.

On Wednesday, US economic indicators disappointed, with US retail sales stalling in July. The FOMC meeting minutes had more impact on the crypto market, with riskier assets taking a hit in response to the talk of a sustained period of rate hikes to curb inflation.

The initial market reaction was market positive before the penny dropped on the fact that the Fed could move well beyond normalization.

Following Wednesday’s price moves, US jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing numbers will provide direction later today.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.58% to $0.3733.

A mixed start to the session saw XRP rise to a high of $0.3810 before falling to a low of $0.3721.

Technical Indicators

An XRP move through the $0.3798 pivot would support a run at the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3917 and resistance at $0.40.

XRP will need broader market support to return to $0.38. In the event of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4041 and resistance at $0.41 before any pullback.

The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.4284.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level at $0.3674 in play. Barring a broad-based crypto reversal, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3650 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3554.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3311

Updates from the SEC v Ripple case and any court ruling on the SEC objection would break down the support and resistance levels.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat at the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.3736.

The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA holding steady against the 200-day EMA, delivering neutral price signals.

The breakout from the 100-day EMA would support a move through the 50-day EMA ($0.3761) to target R1 ($0.3917).

However, a fall through the 200-day EMA (0.3679) and the S1 ($0.3674) would bring S2 (0.3554) into view. Expect XRP to come under intense selling pressure in the event of a fall through the 200-day EMA.