The Dollar Slides, with Carney and the Pound in Focus

The Dollar slumped early in the Asian session today, with the Dollar Spot Index falling as much as 0.44% to an intraday low 94.713, with Dollar weakness seeing little end in sight through the early part of the week, Monday’s recovery going into reverse through the U.S session.

It’s all about the Healthcare Bill once more and once again, progress hit the wall on Monday as the Republican Party and Trump in particular saw a further breakdown in unity, as 2 more members of the Republican Party moved in opposition to the Bill in its current form, leaving Trump short of the votes needed to get the Bill passed, the Healthcare Bill having been priority 1 for the administration, with other growth policies hanging in the balance, as the markets continue to wait with bated breath for the Bill to pass and raise hopes of tax reforms before the end of the year.

Looking at the Dollar this morning, any hopes of tax reforms, let alone an infrastructure spending plan, appear to have been quashed, the markets pricing out any prospect of a change in fortune and, more importantly, in-house support for the U.S President. It’s certainly evident that the administration and the markets are going round in circles, perhaps in disbelief that the administration has yet to deliver on one campaign pledge, which has led to Trump’s popularity hitting even lower levels, despite positive voter sentiment towards the U.S economy.

With macroeconomic data out of the U.S this afternoon limited to release of the June import and export price index figures and Redbook, it’s going to need to be pretty good for the Dollar to bounce back from the dull drums hit in the early part of the day.

Across the pond, things have certainly got more interesting with political discord over Britain’s stance on Brexit weighing in on the pound, the Chancellor of the Exchequer talking of cabinet disagreement on protecting citizens’ rights. Theresa May appears to be facing similar issues as her U.S counterpart, party unity a must for the British government to be able to deliver the best possible terms for Britain’s exit from the EU.

Despite the negative sentiment going into the next round Brexit negotiations, the pound will continue to find support on market sentiment towards a shift in monetary policy in the coming months and possibly, as early as next month.

June inflation figures are scheduled for release out of the UK this morning, with any marginal softening likely to continue supporting the view that the BoE will need to make a move sooner rather than later, with the annual rate of inflation likely to continue to overshoot the BoE’s 2% target for some time yet.

If the markets were looking for some direction from MPC members in the wake of this morning’s inflation numbers and a series of weak economic indicators released in the first week of the month, BoE Governor Carney is scheduled to speak this afternoon, which could provide some more material direction for the pound, any continued talk of a need to move on monetary policy supporting a cable move to $1.32 levels and possibly beyond, should the Dollar continue to struggle in the face of Capitol Hill.

Carney has been known to flip flop, but the effects of inflation’s persistence on the UK economy will be of material concern and the latest employment figures released last week eased any immediate concerns of a deterioration in labour market conditions.

So, while we expect the Dollar to continue to struggle, the direction of the pound will ultimately be in the hands of the BoE Governor and should there be a lack of guidance, the silence will likely be a negative for the pound, which was up 0.32% at $1.30968 at the time of the report, the recovery from Monday’s losses as much to do with Dollar weakness as what’s expected through to Carney’s speech.

Across La Manche, the EUR may be considered a side show through the day, with this morning’s ZEW economic sentiment figures out of Germany and the Eurozone the only stats for the markets to consider, the EUR up 0.39% at $1.1524 at the time of the report, with the prospect of more gains in the offing should today’s figures be upbeat ahead of Thursday’s ECB monetary policy decision.