The UK General Election – Odds, Polls, and Predictions End of Week Update

Tories hold onto a double-digit lead in the opinion polls, but the lead is narrowing and should start raising some red flags…
Bob Mason
WhatsApp Image 2019-11-20 at 20.10.24

It wasn’t the best of weeks for Boris Johnson and the ‘Brexiteers’, if the Electoral Calculus predictions are anything to go by…

The Predictions

According to the latest predictions that are based on opinion polls from 20th to 26th November:

  • The Tories are predicted to win 331 seats, with a majority of just 12.
  • Based on polls from between 19th and 23rd, Electoral Calculus had predicted that the Tories will win 359 seats to give a majority of 68.
  • A downward trend has been evident since the televised debates began. The Tories have seen a 365 seat victory, with an 80 seat majority, evaporate in just a week.

For the opposition party, a ray of hope has emerged and all of this despite Corbyn’s unwillingness to choose a side on the Brexit battlefield.

  • The opposition Party had been predicted to win 208 seats based on the 19th to 23rd November polls.
  • According to the latest predictions, the Labour Party is predicted to win 235 seats.
  • Compared with this time last week, that’s up by 33 seats…

Support for the Liberal Democrats failed to arrive with 12 days remaining until Election Day. The Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems with just 16 seats. That’s down from a high of 50 from earlier in the year…

The Odds

The latest bookmakers’ odds also shifted once more in the week.

According to Oddschecker, the odds for the Tories to win with an overall majority moved from 4/9 to 2/5. The odds had stood at ‘1/2’ going into the weekend of 23rd November.

As for the odds of the Tories winning the most seats, these moved from 1/16 to 1/20. The odds had moved back from 1/14 to 1/16 ahead of the weekend of 23rd November.

For the opposition party, the odds of winning the most seats widened from 12/1 to 14/1. The odds of an overall Labour majority widened from 25/1 to 28/1 after having narrowed from 30/1 to 25/1 mid-week.

With the Lib Dems struggling to see an uptick in support, the latest opinion polls and Electoral Calculus figures suggest that the chances of a hung parliament remain slim.

In spite of the increased support for the Labour Party, the odds of a hung parliament widened from 2/1 to 5/2.

Over the weekend of 23rd November, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament stand at 11/5.

UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.

The Opinion Polls

According to the YouGov poll tracker, based on opinion polls from between 25th and 26th November,

  • The Tory Party has 43% of the vote, rising by 1 point from 22nd. On 15th November, the share of the vote had stood at 45%.
  • For the Opposition Party, rising support led to their share of the vote increase from 30% to 32%. Back on 15th November, their share of the vote had stood at 28%.
  • As for the Lib Dems, it’s been a bad few weeks on the campaign trail. Their share of the vote has fallen back from 15% on 15th November to just 13%.

While the markets await YouGov’s updated opinion poll tracker, polls were not too dissimilar elsewhere at the end of the week.

On Friday, the Evening Standard reported the Tories to hold 43% of the vote, giving them a majority of 12 over Labour’s 31% share.

Some caution is needed here, as the polls were taken at the time that YouGov had the Tories winning with a 68 seat majority.

A Hung Parliament

The latest odds, opinion polls, and predictions have certainly diverged in the last week, making a Sterling bet on the General Election result all the more perilous…

While the Bookies have the odds of a hung parliament at 5/2, the latest Electoral Calculus predictions should raise some concern, as should the YouGov opinion poll tracker.

Both have seen Johnson’s lead materially narrow going into December and the final 12 days.

Unsurprisingly, the news wires have also seen a pickup in the chatter of a hung parliament…

The Pound

For the Pound, there was resilience in the week, in spite of the polls showing the Tory party lead narrow. The Pound rose by 0.75% to $1.2925.

There was undoubtedly some support from the YouGov’s MRP, which had the Tories winning 359 seats against a 211 haul for the Opposition Party.

The prediction was based on the latest opinion poll tracker results and assumes that Johnson will take Labour seats in pro-Brexit areas of the country.

With these numbers based on polls from between 19th and 26th November, results going into next week will be telling…

Expect the Pound to respond and become all the more sensitive to the news wires and the polls on Monday…

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