The Week Ahead – U.S Politics, Monetary Policy, Economic Data, and COVID-19 in Focus
On the Macro
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 73 stats in focus in the week ending 22nd January. In the week prior, 46 stats had been in focus.
For the Dollar:
It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic data front.
In a shortened week, there are no material stats to consider in the 1st half of the week.
Through Thursday, Philly FED Manufacturing PMI and weekly jobless claims figures are in focus.
With market attention to labor market conditions, expect the jobless claims to have the biggest impact. Another jump in jobless claims would likely weigh on riskier assets.
At the end of the week, prelim private sector PMI figures for January wrap things up.
Housing sector data also due out in the week will likely have a muted impact on the Dollar and risk sentiment.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.75% to 90.772.
For the EUR:
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.
On Tuesday, January ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone kick things off.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator will likely be the key driver.
The focus will then shift to January prelim private sector PMI numbers on Friday. France, Germany, and the Eurozone’s private sectors will be in the spotlight on.
Expect Germany’s manufacturing and the Eurozone’s composite to be the key drivers.
Finalized December inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone, also due out in the week, will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.
On the monetary policy front, the ECB is in action on Thursday. No moves are expected, leaving the press conference as the key driver. Questions on the economic outlook are likely as EU member states extend lockdown periods.
The EUR ended the week down by 1.11% to $1.2082.
For the Pound:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include December inflation and retail sales figures, CBI industrial trend orders, and prelim January private sector PMIs.
Expect the retail sales figures and services PMI, due out on Friday, to have the greatest influence.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news will also influence. Following the vaccine approvals, the markets will be looking for new COVID-19 cases to begin abating.
On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor is scheduled to speak on Wednesday.
The Pound ended the week up by 0.16% to $1.3590.
For the Loonie:
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
Key stats include December inflation and November retail sales figures due out on Wednesday and Friday.
Other stats include housing stats, manufacturing and wholesale sales figures. We would expect these stats to have a muted impact on the Loonie, however.
On the monetary policy front, the BoC is in action on Wednesday. With the markets expecting the BoC to hold rates steady, the rate statement and press conference will be the key drivers.
From elsewhere, economic data from China and private sector PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S will also influence.
Expect COVID-19 news updates and chatter from Capitol Hill to also provide direction.
The Loonie ended the week down by 0.24% to C$1.2732 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a busier week on the economic data front.
Consumer sentiment figures for January are due out on Wednesday.
With consumer confidence key to fueling a pickup in consumer spending and an economic recovery, expect Aussie Dollar sensitivity to the numbers.
On Thursday, December employment figures will also provide direction ahead of retail sales figures on Friday.
Economic data from China and private sector PMI numbers from the U.S and the Eurozone will also influence.
COVID-19 news updates will remain a key driver in the week. however.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.70% to $0.7703.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
In the 1st half of the week, 4th quarter business confidence and electronic card retail sales figures are in focus on Tuesday.
At the end of the week, Business PMI and 4th quarter inflation figures wrap things up.
Expect business confidence, retail sales, and 4th quarter inflation figures to be the key drivers.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 1.51% to $0.7133.
For the Japanese Yen:
It is a busy week ahead.
Finalized November industrial production figures get things going on Monday.
On Thursday, December trade figures will draw plenty of attention. With the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to wreak havoc, weak numbers could test market risk appetite.
At the end of the week, December inflation figures and prelim private sector PMIs for January wrap things up. The PMI numbers should have greater influence at the end of the week.
On the monetary policy front, the BoJ is in action on Thursday.
The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.09% to ¥103.85 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
It’s also a busy week ahead.
December industrial production and 4th quarter GDP numbers are due out on Monday. These will be the key stats of the week.
Other stats include fixed asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment figures. Barring dire numbers, however, these stats should have limited impact on market risk sentiment.
On Wednesday, the PBoC is also in action. However, the markets are not expecting any moves.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.10% to CNY6.4809 against the U.S Dollar.
It’s a busy week on Capitol Hill.
Inauguration Day and Trump’s impeachment will draw interest.
Vaccination rates and availability of vaccines will be key areas of interest.
An upward trend in vaccination rates and a downward trend on infection rates would support optimism towards an economic recovery.
A number of big names deliver results in the week ahead.
From the U.S
Bank of America (Tues)
Goldman Sachs Group (Tues),
United Airlines (Wed)
Morgan Stanley (Wed)
Intel Corp. (Thurs).