ADA Price Action: Bulls Eye A Return to $0.50 on the Technicals

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, cardano (ADA) rose by 2.32% to end the day at $0.486.
• Market reaction to the Ethereum Merge continued to leave ADA short of $0.50, with investors fearing a similar slide in response to the Vasil hard fork.
• However, technical indicators are bullish, with ADA sitting above the 100-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.50.

On Saturday, ADA rose by 2.32%. Following a 1.93% gain on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.486. It was only the third positive session of the week, with the US CPI report and the Ethereum Merge weighing on the crypto market.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.472. Avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.462, ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.482 to strike a final hour high of $.488. Coming up against the Second Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.488, ADA eased back to end the day at $0.486.

The market angst over Thursday’s Ethereum (ETH) Merge abated, supporting a broad-based crypto rally. However, ADA trailed the front runners, with the Vasil hard fork just days away. Buy the rumor and sell the news proved true for the Ethereum Merge. Investors could get jittery ahead of Thursday’s Vasil hard fork.

However, one distinct difference between the two events is that the Cardano ecosystem upgrades should improve performance in response to the fork. By contrast, the Merge delivered many uncertainties.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Updates Support Bullish ADA Move

On Saturday, Input Output HK shared a mid-month update on the Vasil hard fork and what to expect. However, there were no updates on the progress of exchanges and dApps and their readiness for Thursday’s hard fork.

As of September 16, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Twenty-five exchanges are hard fork ready.
• Twenty-one exchanges are in progress, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-three have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Seven exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, HitBTC, and XT.com.
• However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

Investors will be looking for Coinbase and Kraken to complete the upgrade process to deliver ADA price support. The next hard fork event date is September 19. The mainnet update proposal has to be submitted by September 19 to trigger the September 22 hard fork event.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges must upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity). Currently, IOHK reports exchanges upgrades accounting for 55% of ADA liquidity.
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 16, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The next update will be available on Monday at 1600 UTC.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.62% to $0.483. A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall from an early high of $0.486 to a low of $0.481.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.482 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.492. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates will continue to influence as the September 22 hard fork date approaches.

However, with no daily updates on exchange and dApp upgrades until Monday, any news from Input Output HK and broader market sentiment will provide direction today.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.498 and resistance at $0.500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.514.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.476 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.470 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.466. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.450.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 100-day, currently at $0.482. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA closing in on the 100-day EMAs delivering bullish signals. An ADA move through the 200-day EMA ($0.484) and R1 ($0.492) would support a run at R2 ($0.498).

However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($0.482) and the 50-day EMA ($0.481) would bring S1 ($0.476) into play. With the EMAs converging, price action is imminent.