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James Hyerczyk
Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is marginally higher on Thursday following a rally into an 18-month peak the previous session. The range is relatively tight and inside yesterday’s extremely wide price bar. This tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. Some negative domestic news is providing speculators with an excuse to book profits after yesterday’s generous gains.

At 06:53 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7196, up 0.0005 or +0.06%.

Aussie sentiment took a hit when Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told a news conference the new lockdowns in Victoria state would cut around A$10-12 billion from national gross domestic product in the third quarter, or about 2.5 percentage points from growth.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7241 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .7064.

The minor trend is also up. Taking out .7076 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is .7064 to .7241. Its retracement zone at .7152 to .7132 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on the first test of this area.

The main range is .6833 to .7241. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at .7037 to .6989 will become the main target area.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

With traders straddling yesterday’s close at .7192, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be decided by trader reaction to this level.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7192 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into .7241. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration into the January 31, 2019 main top at .7296.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7192 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the retracement zone at .7152 to .7132.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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