The Australian Dollar soared to a multi-year high last week, driven by a steep drop in the U.S. Dollar. The market took out its September top at .8124, stopping at .8135, slightly below the May 14, 2015 main top at .8162 and the long-term 50% level at .8165.
The AUD/USD settled at .8108, up 0.0126 or +1.58%.
Weekly Swing Chart Analysis
The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. This week is the eighth week up from the last main bottom at .7501 so it begins with the AUD/USD in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.
Traders will be watching the Australian Consumer Inflation report as well as President Trump’s State of the Union speech, the release of the Fed’s monetary policy statement and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Taking out .8135 will signal a resumption of the uptrend with the first two targets .8162 and .8165. The weekly chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside. This makes .8165 a possible trigger point for an acceleration.
On the downside, the first minor support is the former top at .8124. This is followed by the long-term 50% level at .8037.
Weekly Swing Chart Forecast
AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – In Position to Challenge Major Resistance at .8162 to .8165
Taking out .8135 and sustaining the move will signal the presence of buyers. This will help maintain the bullish tone.
Taking out .8135 then breaking back under .8108 will indicate the presence of sellers.
Taking out .8135 and closing below .8108 for the week will produce a potentially bearish weekly closing price reversal top.