Based on the current upside momentum, we’re looking for the rally to continue into a cluster of main tops. It could start to lose momentum as it tests resistance between tops at .8102 and 8162.
Australian Dollar investors balked at talk about a trade war and protectionism worries to post a strong close on Wednesday. The Aussie is now flirting with the .8100 level, while trying to establish support at the psychological .8000 level.
The catalyst behind the surge in prices was a comment from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He “jawboned” the greenback by saying he “welcomed” a weaker U.S. Dollar.
“Obviously a weaker U.S. Dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,” Mr. Mnuchin told reporters at the Davos Forum.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It was reaffirmed when the AUD/USD surged through the previous top at .8038. A trade through .7956 will change the main trend to down.
If the upside momentum continues through .8038 then the next three targets are the September 20 top at .8102, the September 8 top at .8124 and the May 14, 2015 top at .8162.
Taking out .7956 could drive the Aussie into the major retracement zone at .7886 to .7812.
Based on the current upside momentum, we’re looking for the rally to continue into a cluster of main tops. It could start to lose momentum as it tests resistance between tops at .8102 and 8162.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.