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James Hyerczyk
Australian Dollar and Coins

The Australian Dollar continued to trade lower on Friday after a mixed set of domestic jobs data on Thursday was taken as a green light for a rate cut as soon as July. Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar is not as weak as it was last week when investors overreacted to the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June. Traders are only pricing in a 29% chance of a cut after the June 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. However, there is an 89% likelihood of at least one cut in July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

At 06:42 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6900, down 0.0015 or -0.21%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend changed to down earlier in the session when sellers took out the last swing bottom at .6899. The next target is the May 17 main bottom at .6864.

The short-term range is .6864 to .7022. Its retracement zone at .6924 to .6943 is new resistance. Trading below this zone is also helping to give the AUD/USD a downside bias.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6914 and short-term Fibonacci level at .6924.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6914 will indicate the presence of sellers. The next target is an uptrending Gann angle at .6889. If the selling is strong enough to take out this angle then look for the move to extend into the main bottom at .6864. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Bullish Scenario

Overcoming .6914 will signal the return of buyers. The next target is a resistance cluster at .6922 to .6924. If the buying is strong enough to overtake .6924 then look for a potential acceleration to the upside with the short-term 50% level at .6943 the next target.


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