AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Weak US NFP Report Could Spike Aussie into .7484

The Australian Dollar is edging lower early Friday as most of the major players are sitting on the sidelines ahead of today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, due to be released at 13:30 GMT. Despite the weakness, the Aussie remains well-supported by the prospects of a vaccine-fueled global recovery next year. This development has boosted demand for risky currencies and toppled the safe-haven U.S. Dollar to multi-year lows.

At 08:23 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7433, down 0.0008 or -0.11%.

In other news, figures out on Friday showed retail sales jumped 1.4% in October as the state of Victoria reopened after its marathon lockdown, while card data from banks showed spending surged through Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7449 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .7339. Earlier in the week, the Aussie overtook its September 1 top at .7414, reaffirming the uptrend.

The first minor range is .7339 to .7449. Its 50% level at .7394 is support.

The second minor range is .7255 to .7449. Its 50% level at .7352 is another support level, followed by still another 50% level at .7335.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

We’re looking for the upside bias to continue as long as the AUD/USD can old above the previous main top at .7414. This is known as the “old tops make new bottoms” rule.

Bullish Scenario

Holding .7414 could generate the upside momentum to take out Thursday’s high at .7449. This could trigger a spike into the July 9, 2018 main top at .7484.

Bearish Scenario

A break back under .7414 will signal the return of sellers. This could trigger a move into the first pivot at .7394. If this price fails then look for an acceleration to the downside with the next target a support cluster at .7352, .7339 and .7335.

Side Notes

The AUD/USD could spike higher if the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is bearish. A bad report will increase the need for fiscal stimulus, which will weaken the U.S. Dollar.