AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Looking for Direction

The Australian dollar has done very little during the trading session on Monday, as we are simply digesting the gains from Friday. After all, the Aussie shot straight up in the air from the 50 day EMA after the jobs report, and a certain amount of digestion is probably necessary at this point. It is also worth noting that the area that the market is struggling with was the previous support level, so a certain amount of “market memory” is probably coming into play as well.

AUD/USD Video 09.02.21

Underneath, we have the 50 day EMA which of course will be supportive, so I suspect the most likely of outcomes in the short term will be a simple grind back and forth. I certainly would not be a seller at this point, because we are most certainly in an uptrend. However, if we were to fall enough to break down below the 0.74 level, I might be convinced that the trend is changing. I think we have more choppy sideways action ahead, mainly due to the fact that the Australian dollar is so highly sensitive to commodity prices.

Currently, commodity prices are highly reliant on massive amounts of stimulus coming out the United States. Although that stimulus is more than likely coming, the reality is that the stimulus situation is not quite as cut and dry as it once was. In other words, I think that the confusion politically continues to cause a problem in this market, as it will and several others. In the short term I expect range bound and tight trading.

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