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Christopher Lewis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, but clearly is paying close attention to the 0.80 level. That is an area that I have been talking about for some time, because it is a major pivot on the monthly chart that has determined the overall trend of the market, and if we can break above the 0.80 level significantly that should send this market looking towards the 0.90 level. On the other hand, if we pull back from here it is likely that the market could drop to the 0.75 handle. We are at a major inflection point so it is most certainly worth paying attention to.

AUD/USD Video 26.02.21

The Australian dollar is highly levered to the commodity markets, which of course are highly levered to the idea of the “reflation trade”, as stimulus should have demand for copper and other hard assets like that strengthening over time. In fact, copper is reaching all-time highs on a daily basis, so obviously with Australia being such a major exporter of copper, it makes quite a bit of sense that there will be a lot of demand for the Aussie. At this point, it is likely that we will see the Aussie make several attempts to get above the 0.80 level, where it becomes a “buy-and-hold” scenario. If we do pull back, as long as we can hold the 0.75 handle, then I believe that buyers will return sooner rather than later. In general, we are a little bit overextended, so a pullback is actually the healthiest thing that we could see in the short term with this market being so bullish.

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