AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Sits at Bottom of Current Range
AUDUSD Forecast Video for 11.04.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has rallied just a bit during the trading session on Monday, which of course was always going to be a bit quiet due to the fact that so many countries around the world still had banking holidays from the Easter weekend. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy and choppy behavior regardless, as the markets have to deal with so many moving pieces at the same time. Keep in mind that the market has been having to try to figure out what the Federal Reserve is going to do, as there is still an argument as to whether or not this next interest rate hike is the last one or if there’s going to be another one after that.
Furthermore, we have to worry about the idea of whether or not there’s going to be global growth, and quite frankly it’s a situation where the reaction by the Australian dollar is going to highly mimic what we are seeing in the commodities market as global growth demands commodity consumption. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia chose to sit tight during the last interest rate decision, so it does suggest that the Australians will be at the end of their interest rate hiking cycle.
The 50-Day EMA sits right around the 0.6750 level and is starting to drop. That will be a technical resistance barrier, as the market continues to see a lot of negativity over the longer term. That being said, I do think that if we break above here, then you could see a move looking toward the 200-Day EMA, which is just above the 0.68 level, an area that has been important multiple times. That being said, it’s probably worth noting that in limited trading on Monday, the rally did run out of momentum, and we gave back about half of the gain by the time we got to the United States trading.
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