AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – July 20, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD rose to a new high for the week shortly after the release of the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports. However, sellers quickly came in to drive the Forex pair lower for the session.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian employment levels rose in June for a fourth consecutive month, driven by gains in full-time jobs.

In seasonally adjusted terms, overall employment rose by 14,000 last month, following a revised gain of 38,000 in May. Analysts were looking for a monthly gain of 14,400. The jobless rate rose to 5.6% last month, as expected.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the intraday price action suggests that momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

Today is also the 11^th day up from the last main bottom. This puts the AUD/USD in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This doesn’t mean the main trend is getting ready to turn down, but it will signal that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. This could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The short-term range is .7571 to .7988. If the selling pressure begins to increase then its retracement zone at .77795 to .7730 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7935 and the earlier price action, the direction of the AUD/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending angle at .8011.

A sustained move under this angle will indicate the presence of sellers. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside so we could be witnessing the start of a correction based on the current price action.

The first potential downside target is an uptrending angle at .7791. This is followed by the 50% level at .77795.

Overtaking the uptrending angle at .8011 will signal the return of buyers. This will also put the AUD/USD in an extremely bullish position with a price cluster at .8162 to .8165 the next major upside target.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at yesterday’s close at .7953 also. A close below this price will produce a closing price reversal top. This could start a 2 to 3 correction.