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Barry Norman
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0545 adding 17pts this morning after the release of stronger HSBC manufacturing data. Today’s report showed a continued expansion in the manufacturing sector and an increase over last month. But the market would now mainly focus on US political discussions about the so called `fiscal cliff’ of tax hikes and spending cuts due to apply from 2013. Now quantitative easing is behind markets the only real thing for markets to focus on now is the fiscal cliff for the next week or so ahead of the holidays.

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A business report that showed the local currency is expected to weaken, but remain above parity with the US dollar next year, according to a survey of Australian businesses. The Commonwealth Bank latest Aussie dollar barometer – which measures companies’ expectations of the currency – shows that both importers and exporters expect the currency to start 2013 strongly, before slowly depreciating.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 14

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.50 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

SGD

 

 

Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.0%

 

-1.5% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian WPI (YoY) 

7.24%

 

7.57% 

 

7.45% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-0.5 

-5.2 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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