Bitcoin (BTC) Extends Losses as ETF Outflows and Inflation Risks Mount

Bitcoin’s (BTC) fall from record highs to six-month lows underscores the Fed’s influence on leveraged positions and demand for spot ETFs. BTC faces its largest monthly drawdown since February 2025 as markets unwind bets on a December Fed rate cut.

FOMC members have raised concerns over rising inflation, overshadowing hopes of a Fed rate cut to bolster a cooling labor market.

BTC-spot ETF issuers faced an exodus of institutional money, with net outflows extending to a third consecutive week. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reflected market sentiment, falling deeper into the Extreme Fear zone, signaling oversold conditions.

Rising Prices Dim Fed Rate Cut Bets

Economists have poured cold water on a Fed rate cut as FOMC members flagged concerns over elevated inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December Fed rate cut has fallen from 66.9% on Friday, November 7, to 44.4% on November 14.

US tariffs have pushed import prices higher, making goods increasingly unaffordable. Higher prices and weakening demand correspond to stagflation, a key risk for the US economy.

The Kobeissi Letter commented on US grocery prices, stating:

“US grocery prices have never been more expensive. The average cost of groceries for a family of 4 is now up to a record $1,030/month. […]. To put this differently, a family of 4 now spends over $12,360/year on groceries compared to $9,000 in 2017. We are in an affordability crisis.”

What does rising prices and a weakening jobs market mean for traders?

A deteriorating labor market will likely add to the affordability crisis. Rising unemployment could cool wage growth and weigh on sentiment, potentially curbing consumer spending. A pullback in spending would raise stagflation risks, given that private consumption accounts for around 65% of the US GDP.

Increasing stagflation risks could trigger further BTC-spot ETF outflows and send BTC lower.

Bitcoin Drops to Six-Month Low as ETF Outflows Intensify

Waning bets on a December Fed rate cut and rising stagflation risks push BTC to a six-month low of $93,942. Crucially, demand for BTC through spot ETFs plummeted, adding to the bearish sentiment.

The US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $1.11 billion in the reporting week ending Friday, November 14. Outflows for November surged to $2.32 billion. According to Farside Investors, key weekly flows included:

• BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $532.4 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) reported net outflows of $289.9 million.
• In total, nine of the eleven ETF issuers registered net outflows in the week.

Crucially, BTC dropped 8.59% for the week, extending November’s loss to 12.63%. However, ETF issuers remain in positive territory for 2025, despite the third week of outflows. NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci commented on a brutal Thursday, November 13, session, stating:

“Spot btc ETFs w/ 2nd-biggest outflow yesterday… $870 million. Category still w/ $24+ bil inflows on the year.”

Key Week Ahead: US Inflation, Jobs Data, and the Fed in Focus

The week ahead could be a pivotal week for BTC and the broader crypto market. US inflation and jobs data will likely influence bets on a December Fed rate cut. Higher inflation figures may further dampen expectations of monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, a weaker labor market could fuel stagflation concerns, another headwind for BTC.

With key US data in focus, traders should closely monitor Fed speakers for reactions to the data and views on cutting rates.

Bitcoin’s price trends continued to influence the broader crypto market, pushing Ethereum (ETH) to $3,000.

Ethereum ETF Outflows Send ETH to Key Support Levels

ETH-spot ETF issuers saw total net outflows of $728.3 million in the reporting week ending November 14. Notably, ETH tumbled to a November 14 low of $3,073 before briefly reclaiming the $3,200 handle.

Significantly, ETH was on track for a third consecutive weekly loss, down 11% at the time of writing. ETH-spot ETFs reported net outflows in four of the last five weeks, sending ETH lower.

Explore our ETF flow deep dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Looking ahead, several key events will influence BTC’s near-term outlook:

• US economic data.
• FOMC members’ speeches.
• Legislative developments, such as the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• US BTC-spot ETF flow trends.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill, dovish Fed rhetoric, softer US inflation data, and ETF inflows. These factors could drive BTC toward $100,000.
• Bearish Scenario: Rising US stagflation risks, legislative setbacks, hawkish Fed comments, or ETF outflows. These factors could drag BTC toward $90,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating bearish momentum. Crucially, the 50-day EMA converged on the 200-day EMA, raising the risk of a bearish cross.

• Upside Target: A break above $97,500 could pave the way toward the $100,000 psychological resistance level. A sustained move through $100,000 could bring the 200-day and 50-day EMAs into play, with $110,000 being the next key resistance level.
• On the downside, a break below $94,447 could open the door to testing $90,000. If breached, $86,263 would be the next key support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum ETF Flows and Key Support and Resistance Levels

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), ETH continued to trade below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming a bearish bias.

• Upside Target: A break above the $3,287 resistance level would bring the $3,563 resistance level and the 200-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 200-day EMA may open the door to testing the 50-day EMA.
• On the downside, a drop below the $3,000 psychological support level could bring the $2,815 support level into play. If breached, $2,308 would be the next key support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by monitoring macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.