Bitcoin Now Most Oversold Versus Gold on Record: Can BTC Still Retake $100K?

Bitcoin (BTC) reached its most oversold zone versus its safe-haven rival, gold (XAU), amid a persistent risk-off sentiment set by tariff uncertainties and the software sector rout.

As of Feb. 24, the BTC/XAU ratio was down 7.52% week-to-date and over 70% from its December 2025 high.

This plunge accompanied a sharp decline in the ratio’s weekly relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator to gauge an asset’s oversold and overbought status.

The BTC/XAU RSI reading came at 20.92, the lowest on record and about 10 points underneath the oversold threshold of 30. In other words, Bitcoin was trading at historic cheap levels when priced in gold terms.

Citrini Research Risks Worsening Bitcoin Selloff

Oversold RSI typically precede bullish reversal. However, in Bitcoin’s case, such a recovery seems far for now.

That is because of AI disruption fears, which have deepened the risk-off mood, boosting gold and pressuring Bitcoin.

A Citrini Research stress test further said an “AI exceeds expectations” shock could drive unemployment to 10% and pull the S&P 500 ~38% from a late-2026 8,000 peak, hitting payments, software and private credit.

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US President Donald Trump raised Section 122 tariffs to 15% in a clear attempt to sideline a recent Supreme Court ruling that deemed his previous tariffs illegal.

Such macro conditions raised the odds of Bitcoin underperforming gold despite its extremely oversold status.

Approaching Death Cross May Prompt BTC Recovery

BTC/XAU’s last major “death cross,” when the 50-week EMA (red) slipped below the 200-week EMA (blue), arrived after a long decline and coincided with what the chart labels as a BTC/XAU bottom.

In that prior cycle, the cross served as lagging confirmation of weakness that had largely already played out, with price stabilising in the same zone before reversing higher.

The rebound that followed was broad: BTC/XAU advanced roughly 137% over the next ~52 weeks, while BTC/USD rallied about 170% over a similar window, per the chart’s measured move boxes.

The current BTC/XAU structure shows another death cross approaching, again occurring after a steep drawdown and a deep momentum washout, conditions that, historically on this chart, have aligned with bullish reversals.

A rebound of a similar proportion could push BTC’s price toward $175,000 by early 2027.