Bitcoin Price Forecast: Gaussian Indicator Warns BTC Will Crash To $43K

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped by around 2.5% on Thursday, reaching around $66,200, as risk appetite turned sour after Donald Trump’s speech on the escalating US–Iran war.

Now, a fractal indicator shows the possibility of extended price declines.

Bitcoin Analyst Sees $43K as Gaussian Channel Repeats Old Pattern

Bitcoin has slipped back inside its long-term Gaussian Channel, a move that marked deeper downside in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, according to an analysis shared by Leshka.ETH.

The Gaussian Channel is a smoothed price band that helps track Bitcoin’s broader trend range. In simple terms, it acts like a long-term map of where price is trading relative to its historical cycle extremes.

When Bitcoin trades above the upper band, it often signals overheated conditions. When it falls back inside the channel, it can mean bullish momentum is fading, and the price is returning to its normal cycle range.

In the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, Bitcoin did not bounce immediately after re-entering the channel from above. Instead, it kept falling toward the lower band before bottoming.

That lower band now sits near $43,000, implying about 35% downside from current levels around $66,500–$68,000.

Trump Speech Adds Fuel to BTC’s Bearish Setup

Bitcoin’s bearish technical setup is unfolding against a worsening macro backdrop.

In a prime-time address on April 1, President Donald Trump said the US would keep hitting Iran for another “two to three weeks,” offered no clear ceasefire roadmap, and kept markets focused on the risk of a longer war and deeper energy disruption.

That mattered immediately for risk assets. Oil jumped nearly 7% after the speech, with Brent climbing to about $108 a barrel and WTI to around $106.5, as traders priced in a higher chance of prolonged supply stress and further disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

Global equities and other risk markets also turned lower as investors moved back into defensive positioning.

Higher oil raises the odds of sticky inflation, tighter financial conditions, and a weaker appetite for speculative assets.

That strengthens the bearish case behind the Gaussian Channel setup.

The Bullish Case For Bitcoin

The main bullish counterpoint is Strategy’s ability to resume Bitcoin buying through ATM sales of its STRC preferred stock.

Weekly estimates for March 30–April 3 already imply potential purchases of more than 1,308 BTC, driven largely by strong STRC volume in the same period, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.

That matters because Strategy’s buying has recently helped cushion Bitcoin during broader market weakness.

In the week ending March 15, Bitcoin held up better than US stocks even as risk sentiment worsened, with Strategy buying 22,337 BTC, equal to roughly seven weeks of Bitcoin’s post-halving supply output.

A similar buying wave could again help limit downside.