The Week Ahead: Oil, Yields and Nvidia Earnings Drive Pivotal Week for Stocks

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished last week mixed as AI strength, rising Treasury yields, oil pressure, Fed policy uncertainty, and geopolitical developments all competed for control of market direction. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50, up 9.57 points or 0.13%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,225.14, down 21.93 points or 0.08%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,526.18, down 82.99 points or 0.17%.

The early part of the week was driven by continued leadership in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Cisco Systems rallied after beating Wall Street estimates and highlighting continued enterprise spending on networking equipment and AI infrastructure. Nvidia remained the market’s primary AI bellwether as investors continued using the stock as direct exposure to hyperscale AI spending. Semiconductor-focused ETFs and AI-linked software names outperformed through the first half of the week.

The macro backdrop worsened into Friday. Producer prices came in hotter than expected, oil prices moved higher, and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield pushed toward one-year highs. That combination pressured growth stocks and forced traders to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 1.5% on Friday as profit-taking accelerated across technology and semiconductor names.

Geopolitics also remained central to market pricing. The Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing reinforced concerns surrounding Iran after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to the U.S. peace proposal and described the ceasefire as “on life support.” The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, keeping pressure on crude oil markets and inflation expectations. Around 1,550 vessels remain unable to move through the strait while the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports remains active.

Healthcare and consumer staples held up better during Friday’s decline while energy stocks found support from higher crude prices. The market enters the week focused on oil, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve commentary, and whether AI earnings strength can continue offsetting macro pressure.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, May 18

Before the Open:
• Baidu (BIDU), est. $11.56 per share

Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – NAHB Housing Market Index, forecast 34 (prior 34)
• 20:00 GMT – TIC Long-Term Purchases, forecast 82.4B (prior 58.6B)

After the Close:
• Agilysys (AGYS), est. $0.50 per share

Tuesday, May 19

Before the Open:
• Amer Sports (AS), est. $0.31 per share
• Bilibili (BILI), est. 1.16 per share
• Eagle Materials (EXP), est. 1.59 per share
• Home Depot (HD), est. 3.41 per share
• KE Holdings (BEKE), est. 0.95 per share

Economic Releases:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 33.0K
• 14:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales m/m, forecast 1.2% (prior 1.5%)
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close:
• CAVA Group (CAVA), est. $0.17 per share
• James Hardie (JHX), est. 0.30 per share
• Keysight (KEYS), est. 2.32 per share
• Toll Brothers (TOL), est. 2.57 per share
• ZTO Express (ZTO), est. 3.07 per share

Wednesday, May 20

Before the Open:
• Analog Devices (ADI), est. $2.89 per share
• Arcos Dorados (ARCO), est. $0.12 per share
• Dorian LPG (LPG), est. $1.45 per share
• GDS Holdings (GDS), est. -$0.23 per share
• Hasbro (HAS), est. $1.16 per share
• Lowe’s (LOW), est. $2.97 per share
• Roivant Sciences (ROIV), est. -$0.29 per share
• Target (TGT), est. $1.42 per share
• TJX (TJX), est. $1.02 per share
• V.F. Corp (VFC), est. -$0.01 per share

Economic Releases:
• 13:15 GMT – FOMC Member Barr Speaks
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -4.3M
• 18:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

After the Close:
• e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), est. $0.29 per share
• Enersys (ENS), est. $2.99 per share
• Intuit (INTU), est. $12.57 per share
• Nordson (NDSN), est. $2.82 per share
• StepStone Group (STEP), est. $0.52 per share
• Urban Outfitters (URBN), est. $1.14 per share
• Nvidia (NVDA), est. $1.78 per share

Thursday, May 21

Before the Open:
• Advance Auto Parts (AAP), est. $0.42 per share
• Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS), est. $0.95 per share
• Deere (DE), est. $5.70 per share
• Hamilton Lane (HLNE), est. $1.41 per share
• Lightspeed (LSPD), est. $0.09 per share
• NetEase (NTES), est. $15.10 per share
• NIO (NIO), est. -$0.52 per share
• Ralph Lauren (RL), est. $2.53 per share
• Shoe Carnival (SCVL), est. $0.23 per share
• Vipshop (VIPS), est. $4.56 per share
• Wealthfront (WLTH), est. $0.12 per share
• Walmart (WMT), est. $0.66 per share

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast 17.9 (prior 26.7)
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 210K (prior 211K)
• 12:30 GMT – Building Permits, forecast 1.38M (prior 1.37M)
• 12:30 GMT – Housing Starts, forecast 1.40M (prior 1.50M)
• 13:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 53.6 (prior 54.5)
• 13:45 GMT – Flash Services PMI, forecast 51.1 (prior 51.0)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior 85B
• 16:20 GMT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

After the Close:
• CAE (CAE), est. $0.30 per share
• Deckers Outdoor (DECK), est. $0.83 per share
• Flowers Foods (FLO), est. $0.27 per share
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI), est. -$1.03 per share
• Lionsgate Studios (LION), est. $0.24 per share
• LiveRamp (RAMP), est. $0.49 per share
• PayPay (PAYP), est. $0.13 per share
• Ross Stores (ROST), est. $1.71 per share
• Take-Two (TTWO), est. $0.56 per share
• Webull (BULL), est. $0.04 per share
• Workday (WDAY), est. $2.52 per share
• Zoom Communications (ZM), est. $1.42 per share

Friday, May 22

Before the Open:
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), est. $1.03 per share
• Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), est. $1.34 per share
• Global Ship Lease (GSL), est. $2.40 per share

Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 48.2 (prior 48.2)
• 14:00 GMT – CB Leading Index m/m, prior -0.6%
• 14:00 GMT – Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 4.5%
• FOMC Member Waller Speaks

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Tuesday

12:00 GMT – Christopher Waller (FOMC Member)
23:00 GMT – Paulson (FOMC Member)

Wednesday

13:15 GMT – Michael Barr (FOMC Member)
18:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday

16:20 GMT – Thomas Barkin (FOMC Member)

Friday

Christopher Waller (FOMC Member)

Fed commentary remains a primary market catalyst after hotter producer price data and rising oil prices pushed Treasury yields sharply higher last week. Markets will focus closely on the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers for guidance on inflation risks, energy prices, and whether elevated yields continue delaying expectations for future rate cuts.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 49,526.18 (-0.17%), support at 48,708.57, 47,538.91, 46,953.25, 46,644.97 (52-week SMA), resistance at 50,020.54, 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 26,225.14 (-0.08%), support at 23,698.70, 22,988.70, 22,354.32 (52-week SMA), 20,690.25, resistance at 26,707.14.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 7,408.50 (+0.13%), support at 6,917.02, 6,775.39, 6,644.79 (52-week SMA), 6,316.91, resistance at 7,517.12.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

Markets enter the week focused on oil prices, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and AI-driven earnings momentum. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut following stalled negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran, keeping upward pressure on crude oil and inflation expectations. That pressure pushed Treasury yields near one-year highs last week and forced traders to reduce expectations for future Fed rate cuts.

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday represent one of the week’s key macro events following the final Jerome Powell-led policy meeting. Traders will also monitor crude inventories, jobless claims, PMI data, housing releases, and consumer sentiment for additional signals on inflation pressure, labor market stability, and economic momentum.

Nvidia remains the most important earnings report of the week. Wall Street expects earnings of $1.78 per share on revenue of $78.98 billion as investors continue focusing on hyperscale AI spending, semiconductor demand, and Blackwell platform growth. Markets will closely watch commentary from CEO Jensen Huang following his recent China trip with President Trump and other executives. AI infrastructure spending, cloud demand, and hyperscaler capital expenditure trends remain central themes for the broader technology sector.

Walmart will provide one of the clearest reads on the U.S. consumer and inflation pressure. Wall Street expects earnings of $0.66 per share on revenue of $174.62 billion. Traders will focus on whether higher oil prices and inflation are impacting spending patterns, along with Walmart’s comments on pricing, e-commerce growth, and higher-income consumer demand.

Reports from Target, Lowe’s, Home Depot, Deere, Workday, Analog Devices, Ross Stores, and Cisco-linked enterprise spending trends will add additional detail across retail, housing, industrials, software, semiconductors, and consumer demand.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.