Bitcoin Rally Peaks After Five Waves: Larger Correction Begins
Since our July 1 update and subsequent August–September updates, we have tracked a potential five-wave impulsive advance from the July low using the Elliott Wave Principle for Bitcoin (BTCUSD). That structure remains intact. Namely, in our last update, when BTC was trading at ~$80,440, we showed “a high-probability completion of a smaller-degree fourth wave off the July 1 low, with price action shifting into a fifth-wave advance (gray wave v) whose ideal target zone sits between $85,200 and $94,500.”
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Every new Bitcoin analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Bitcoin forecastsWhile the measured move projected an ideal target of about $93,000, we concluded that “combined with the fifth-wave Fibonacci and resistance confluence, the $85K–$95K region is the primary upside objective.”
Fast-forward to today (see Figure 1 below). Bitcoin peaked at $87,336 on September 21, then declined to a low of $80,368 on October 8, erasing all gains since our last update. Thus, a larger correction (green Wave-2) has most likely begun before the next bull run can start.
Bull Market Confirmed, but Wave-2 Pullback Targets $70K
Alternatively, we can allow one last rally deeper into the ideal topping zone, closer to the ideal $93K level; see Figure 2 below. But we don’t rely on it, as discussed in prior updates: “If the potential five-wave sequence from the July 1 low completes as projected, it would confirm that an important cycle low was struck on July 1. That would mean the bear market that began after the prior cycle peak has ended prematurely and the long-followed four-year cycle is officially over.”
We now have five waves up from the July 1 low, and the Bull is confirmed; the bear market has ended, and the four-year cycle is officially over.
In the EWP, impulse waves move in five waves; the green Wave-1 (W-1) comprises five smaller gray Waves: W-i, ii, iii, iv, v. Thus, W-2, 3, 4, and 5 must follow W-1. Now, W-2 should be underway, ideally at $69,000 +/- 4,000, with the upper end preferred, before W-3 can take hold, targeting new all-time highs.
