Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Needs to Break This Resistance to Rise to $75K

Bitcoin (BTC) has gone down by 2% in the past 7 days but has managed to stay above the $62,700 level after last week’s inflation report showed that prices cooled down in the U.S. in July.

Trading volumes jumped once again as the price action hit this specific level, indicating that there seems to be a cluster of buy orders sitting at that threshold.

Last week, the odds of an interest rate hike in September declined to just 30%, down from a previous high of around 76% last month.

This drop came after U.S. inflation dropped to 3.4% in July, 10 basis points below June’s print.

That said, inflation is still sitting 140 basis points off the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. During the last FOMC meeting, three governors disagreed with the committee’s decision to keep rates unchanged.

Hence, even though a rate hike might be delayed, the Fed’s stance on monetary policy is still hawkish, and that’s what’s keeping crypto prices in check as macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflows Seem Headed to Rise by 400% This Month

Turning to on-chain and Bitcoin-specific data, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the top crypto saw $350 million in net outflows last week, indicating that investors are still skeptical about the token’s chances to rally.

Despite these outflows, data from SoSoValue shows that ETF inflows in August are heading to close the month at $870 million — their highest monthly level since April this year.

This results in a 405% increase compared to last month’s inflows and could be indicative of an ongoing shift in the market’s sentiment toward the top crypto.

In addition, even though BTC continues to be in consolidation mode, whales have kept accumulating the token with the expectation that it may soon leave the freezer if market conditions improve.

On-chain data from Santiment shows that top wallets holding between 1 and 100,000 tokens have added a net total of 10,000 BTC tokens this month. The biggest whales, those holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC, did most of the buying, adding 30,000 tokens to their stash in just 17 days.

Ongoing accumulation by deep-pocketed players helps create strong price floors for assets, and this could be the reason why Bitcoin has managed to stay above the $60,000 mark in the past 45 days.

BTC Should Retest This Key Moving Average If It Breaks Above $66K

Heading to the price action, we can see that BTC has been consolidating following a second rejection of a move above the $66,000 resistance, which remains our key level to watch for this week.

The $62,000 area seems to have acted as strong support lately, but this might just be a temporary floor and not necessarily a relevant area from a technical standpoint.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is leaning toward a bearish outlook as it dropped below the signal line. If it dips below 40, the odds of a retest of $60,000 will be high.

In contrast, if BTC rises past the $66,000 threshold, we envision a retest of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $72,000 in the near term and potentially to $75,000 based on the size of the head of the current inverse head and shoulders pattern.