BTC Bulls to Target a Return to $30,000 on Fed Rate Hike and Projections

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Tuesday, with BTC rising by 1.44% to end the day at $28,112.
• Containment of the banking crisis, sentiment toward the Fed, and SEC v Ripple chatter delivered the bullish session.
• The technical indicators are bullish, with $30,000 still in view.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.44%. Reversing a 0.82% decline from Monday, BTC ended the day at $28,112. BTC revisited the $28,000 handle for the third consecutive day but failed to print a new 2023 high.

A choppy morning saw BTC slide to a mid-morning low of $27,312. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,083, BTC rose to a late afternoon high of $28,435. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,392 before easing back to end the session at $28,112.

SEC v Ripple Chatter and Fed Expectations Delivered Support

On Tuesday, the market reaction to the latest filing in the ongoing SEC v Ripple case supported the broader crypto market. XRP rallied by 25.25% as investors digested the Ripple filing to support the fair notice defense.

The defendants referenced the Voyager Digital bankruptcy case, citing bankruptcy Judge Michael Wiles rulings that favored Voyager Digital.

A Ripple victory in the SEC v Ripple case could materially alter the regulatory landscape and bring a swift end to the anti-crypto sentiment that plagues Capitol Hill.

Investor sentiment toward the Fed also delivered price support. With fears of a banking crisis subsiding, the markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today. Hopes of a post-March pause to assess the effects of interest rate hikes on the banking system, inflation, and the economy also delivered support.

The NASDAQ Composite Index rose by 1.58% on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 seeing gains of 0.98% and 1.30%, respectively. This morning, the NASDAQ mini was down 4 points.

The Day Ahead

There are no US economic indicators to move the dial, leaving the Fed interest rate decision, FOMC projections, and Fed Chair Powell to provide direction.

However, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires. Binance and FTX news and updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will draw interest. Regulator and lawmaker attention will likely return to the digital asset space after having averted a banking crisis.

The Economic Report of the President targeted the digital asset space this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.09% to $28,088. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an opening price of $28,111 to a low of $28,088.

BTC Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $27,953 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,594 and the Tuesday high of $28,435. A move through the Tuesday high of $28,435 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires and the Fed should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $29,076 and resistance at $30,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $30,199.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,471 into play. However, barring a Fed-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $26,830 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,707.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($26,363). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($26,363) would support a breakout from R1 ($28,594) to target R2 ($29,076) and $30,000. However, a fall through S1 ($27,471) would bring S2 ($26,830) and the 50-day EMA ($26,363) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.