Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – November 18, 2015 Forecast
December Comex Gold futures are trading slightly higher, shortly before the regular session opening. Today’s session is 15 days down from the most recent main top, putting it well-inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.
Any rally is likely to be triggered by profit-taking and short-covering. The fundamentals are so overwhelmingly bearish that most of the funds are betting on the short side. Additionally, money has been leaving the gold ETFs.
Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The market is also trading below a series of previous bottoms including $1073.70, $1097.70 and $1103.80, all of which are new resistance.
The key angle to watch today drops in at $1063.10. This angle was tested earlier in the session when gold traded down to $1062.00. There was no sustained break under this level and gold quickly turned higher after it reached the low. Because of this price action, gold is now in a position to post a closing price reversal bottom, not only because of time, but also because of price.
Because of the lower-low earlier today, the emphasis shifts to yesterday’s close at $1068.60. Trader reaction to this price will determine the tone of the day.
A sustained move over $1068.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming the previous major bottom at $1073.70 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. There is room to the upside with $1097.40 to $1097.70 the next target.
Closing over $1068.60 will produce a closing price reversal bottom.
A sustained move under $1068.60 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is the steep downtrending angle at $1063.10. This is followed closely by the intra-day low at $1062.00. Crossing to the weak side of the angle at $1068.60 and sustaining the move will put gold in an extremely bearish position.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1068.60 the rest of the session. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control.