Crude Oil Analysis – Crude Oil Continues to Look for Clarity as Iranian Strikes Loom

Crude Oil (WTI and Brent) Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has gone back and forth early trading on Friday as we continue to hang around just above the 200-day EMA.

With that being the case, we are basically sitting in consolidation with the $66 level above being a major resistance barrier and the $62 level below being support. I think this is a market that doesn’t really know what to do with itself right now because, quite frankly, the demand isn’t as strong as needed, but at the same time, there are a lot of concerns about whether or not the Americans and the Iranians are going to start throwing missiles at each other.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Market Range

Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to find its range, as is typical. Brent markets probably have a much cleaner setup in the sense that the $70 level is the ceiling and the $65 level is the floor and we happen to be right in the middle of it.

So, with that being said, I think this is neutral. If we get a little too bullish, I might fade it; if we get a little too bearish, I might buy it. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Of course, as we head into the weekend a lot of traders will be concerned about any military actions being possible and that has a lot of people probably staying out of the market would be my guess. I think it would be very difficult to jump in with a huge position on Friday, only to wake up Monday and it’s gone 10% against you.

I don’t think that the Americans are going to hit the oil infrastructure of Iran; they’ve shown time and time again that they don’t do that, but it does put a little bit of a premium on the market just in case.