Crude Oil Price Update – Sustained Move Over $105.77 Puts June WTI in Bullish Position

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading slightly higher on Friday but was still in a position to post its first weekly loss in three weeks as mixed fundamentals continued to control the price action.

Bullish traders are pinning their hopes for higher prices on dwindling fuel supplies for Russia, while bearish traders are betting aggressive central bank interest rate hikes to combat out of control inflation and China’s COVID lockdowns will slow global growth and demand.

At 08:43 GMT, July WTI crude oil futures are trading $104.95, up $0.55 or +0.53%. On Thursday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $79.24, up $1.06 or +1.36%.

An international Energy Agency (IEA) report on Thursday highlighted the dueling factors in the market, saying rising oil production in the Middle East and the United States and a slowdown in demand growth are “expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.”

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through $109.77 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $96.93 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is $116.43 to $88.53. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $102.48 to $105.77.

The minor range is $92.15 to $109.77. Its retracement zone at $100.96 to $98.88 is support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the July WTI crude oil market on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $105.77.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $105.77 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the pair of main tops at $109.77 and $110.07.

Taking out $110.07 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into the March 7 main top at $116.430.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $105.77 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with potential downside targets lined up at $102.48, $100.96 and $98.88. The latter is the last potential support before the $96.93 main bottom. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.