Crude Oil Price Update – Upside Momentum Slowing

August West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading slightly higher shortly before the regular session opening. It is also trading inside yesterday’s range, suggesting trader indecision and impending volatility.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It turned up on Thursday when the market crossed the last swing top at $45.28. There wasn’t much new buying which suggests the breakout was triggered by buy stops, and the rally stopped at $45.45. A trade through this price will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Today is the seventh day up from the recent bottom. This puts crude oil in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The main range is $52.22 to $42.05. If the rally continues then its retracement zone at $47.14 to $48.34 becomes the primary upside target.

The short-term range is $42.05 to $45.45. A correction will send the market into its retracement zone at $43.75 to $43.35.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $45.17, the nearest target angles are $45.55 and $45.97. The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is $45.97. Taking out this angle could trigger an acceleration into the major 50% level at $47.14.

The inability to overcome $45.97 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to the start of a steep sell-off with downside targets an old top at $44.45 and a support cluster at $43.80 to $43.75.

Basically, crude oil has to overcome the angle at $45.97 to trigger a surge to the upside.